Bafang | BTC Midday Market Analysis 10.29
Data time: Beijing time 10.29 15:38
It was still above 81,300 this morning, then a single bearish candle at 9 a.m. plunged straight through 80,000. That move during the Asian session erased most of the post-rate-decision rebound.
📉 How the market fell this morning
At 9 a.m., the price dropped from 81,100 to 79,980 in one hour, with trading volume of around 29 million USDT—nearly five times the previous hour's
At 10 a.m., it continued down to 79,710, today's low
At 1 p.m., it rebounded to 80,520 but failed to hold, then returned to around 79,900
🌏 Why did the Asian session lead the decline?
Samsung reported record results, with operating profit of 106.5 trillion won in its semiconductor division. However, this was still slightly below market expectations, and it gave no details on shareholder returns. Its stock fell more than 5% at one point intraday, and the KOSPI closed down 1.24%
That came on top of a hawkish Fed outlook: on CME, the probability of a 25 bp rate hike in December reached 79.8%
When tech stocks weaken, crypto gets hit too. Liquidations across the market totaled around $356 million over 24 hours, including $205 million in long positions
📊 $BTC : A few intraday figures
Current price: 79,898, 24h -1.29%
Below EMA50 (80,790), and just 370 points above the lower Bollinger Band at 79,530
Daily RSI 41.4, 4H RSI 41.8
MACD histogram -495, compared with -353 this morning—the bears are gaining momentum
The long/short ratio rose from 1.89 at 8 a.m. to 2.13 at 3 p.m.; more people are buying the dip as the price falls
Funding rate fell to 0.0038%; leverage isn't particularly overheated
Other coins
$ETH 2,309, daily RSI 33.6, dipped to 2,294, and is already testing the lower Bollinger Band at 2,289
$SOL 99.86, down another 100, with the lower Bollinger Band at 98.7
BNB 749.75, 24h +0.68%, the only one of the major coins in the green
🎯 Key levels for the afternoon
Resistance: 80,520 (midday rebound high) / 80,790 (EMA50)
Support: 79,710 (today's low) / 79,530 (lower Bollinger Band)
View: Bearish range-bound trading
The decline came on rising volume, while the rebound came on falling volume; the short-term weakness remains. The long/short ratio is rising while the price is falling, and I don't like this divergence. If another wave of long-position stop-losses hits, 79,500 may not hold.
Bafang's view: U.S. GDP and PCE data are both due tonight at 20:30. I won't buy the dip before the data comes out. First, let's see whether 79,710 holds. Don't rush to call a bottom unless the price gets back above 80,790.
Do you think BTC will return to 80,500 or break below 79,500 first, before tonight's data comes out?
(Personal opinion only; not investment advice)
#BTC #行情分析 #FederalReserve
Data time: Beijing time 10.29 15:38
It was still above 81,300 this morning, then a single bearish candle at 9 a.m. plunged straight through 80,000. That move during the Asian session erased most of the post-rate-decision rebound.
📉 How the market fell this morning
At 9 a.m., the price dropped from 81,100 to 79,980 in one hour, with trading volume of around 29 million USDT—nearly five times the previous hour's
At 10 a.m., it continued down to 79,710, today's low
At 1 p.m., it rebounded to 80,520 but failed to hold, then returned to around 79,900
🌏 Why did the Asian session lead the decline?
Samsung reported record results, with operating profit of 106.5 trillion won in its semiconductor division. However, this was still slightly below market expectations, and it gave no details on shareholder returns. Its stock fell more than 5% at one point intraday, and the KOSPI closed down 1.24%
That came on top of a hawkish Fed outlook: on CME, the probability of a 25 bp rate hike in December reached 79.8%
When tech stocks weaken, crypto gets hit too. Liquidations across the market totaled around $356 million over 24 hours, including $205 million in long positions
📊 $BTC : A few intraday figures
Current price: 79,898, 24h -1.29%
Below EMA50 (80,790), and just 370 points above the lower Bollinger Band at 79,530
Daily RSI 41.4, 4H RSI 41.8
MACD histogram -495, compared with -353 this morning—the bears are gaining momentum
The long/short ratio rose from 1.89 at 8 a.m. to 2.13 at 3 p.m.; more people are buying the dip as the price falls
Funding rate fell to 0.0038%; leverage isn't particularly overheated
Other coins
$ETH 2,309, daily RSI 33.6, dipped to 2,294, and is already testing the lower Bollinger Band at 2,289
$SOL 99.86, down another 100, with the lower Bollinger Band at 98.7
BNB 749.75, 24h +0.68%, the only one of the major coins in the green
🎯 Key levels for the afternoon
Resistance: 80,520 (midday rebound high) / 80,790 (EMA50)
Support: 79,710 (today's low) / 79,530 (lower Bollinger Band)
View: Bearish range-bound trading
The decline came on rising volume, while the rebound came on falling volume; the short-term weakness remains. The long/short ratio is rising while the price is falling, and I don't like this divergence. If another wave of long-position stop-losses hits, 79,500 may not hold.
Bafang's view: U.S. GDP and PCE data are both due tonight at 20:30. I won't buy the dip before the data comes out. First, let's see whether 79,710 holds. Don't rush to call a bottom unless the price gets back above 80,790.
Do you think BTC will return to 80,500 or break below 79,500 first, before tonight's data comes out?
(Personal opinion only; not investment advice)
#BTC #行情分析 #FederalReserve