#美国中期选举 Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 32%, close to a historic low. The midterm elections in five days could well become a turning point in his second term—and determine whether the bill the crypto industry has been waiting years for has any chance of passing 🧐🧐
Midterm elections can be thought of as a “midterm exam” for the president, and Trump’s report card this time is clearly not looking good.
Here’s where things stand: Republicans currently hold 218 seats in the House, while Democrats hold 214. Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to flip control. National polls show Democrats leading by nearly nine points, and with the president’s approval rating in the doldrums, a change in control of the House is now widely expected.
⚠️What does this have to do with crypto? (Pay attention!!!)
Trump is the most crypto-friendly president in history, but putting his policies into practice requires Congress. The crypto market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, aims to clarify which digital assets fall under the SEC’s jurisdiction and which fall under the CFTC’s, while setting rules for exchanges. It’s the “compliance ID” the industry has been hoping for for years. On September 15, it failed in a Senate procedural vote, 49–50—one vote short.
Whoever controls the new Senate will largely determine whether the bill is revived next year or remains on hold. If Democrats win the Senate, and lawmakers skeptical of crypto like Warren take charge of key committees, regulatory clarity could be at least another year away. That’s why the crypto industry has poured around $176 million into this election, getting involved in more than 100 races. It doesn’t matter how supportive the president is of crypto if Congress won’t cooperate.
What about U.S. stocks? There’s a striking historical pattern: since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen in all 19 of the 12-month periods following midterm elections, with an average gain of nearly 21%—regardless of which party won. What markets fear isn’t who wins, but uncertainty. Once the votes are cast and the results are in, the money comes back.
Midterm elections can be thought of as a “midterm exam” for the president, and Trump’s report card this time is clearly not looking good.
Here’s where things stand: Republicans currently hold 218 seats in the House, while Democrats hold 214. Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to flip control. National polls show Democrats leading by nearly nine points, and with the president’s approval rating in the doldrums, a change in control of the House is now widely expected.
⚠️What does this have to do with crypto? (Pay attention!!!)
Trump is the most crypto-friendly president in history, but putting his policies into practice requires Congress. The crypto market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, aims to clarify which digital assets fall under the SEC’s jurisdiction and which fall under the CFTC’s, while setting rules for exchanges. It’s the “compliance ID” the industry has been hoping for for years. On September 15, it failed in a Senate procedural vote, 49–50—one vote short.
Whoever controls the new Senate will largely determine whether the bill is revived next year or remains on hold. If Democrats win the Senate, and lawmakers skeptical of crypto like Warren take charge of key committees, regulatory clarity could be at least another year away. That’s why the crypto industry has poured around $176 million into this election, getting involved in more than 100 races. It doesn’t matter how supportive the president is of crypto if Congress won’t cooperate.
What about U.S. stocks? There’s a striking historical pattern: since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen in all 19 of the 12-month periods following midterm elections, with an average gain of nearly 21%—regardless of which party won. What markets fear isn’t who wins, but uncertainty. Once the votes are cast and the results are in, the money comes back.
