The leveraged market is more lively than spot. $BTC is around 80160, with a daily range of 79710–81823. After being knocked down from above 81,000 this morning to around 80,000, contract open interest climbed back from about 95,900 to roughly 97,400—someone is adding positions after the drop, not closing them.
For liquidations, I estimated the levels using publicly available changes in Binance’s USDT-margined open interest and typical leverage tiers; this isn’t an off-the-shelf exchange heatmap. The nearest dense cluster of long liquidations below is at 79500–79200, followed by 78200–78000, with a much larger cluster at 77000–76200. Above, the nearest short-liquidation levels are around 82000–82100, then 83200–84200, with another cluster farther out around 87000. The current price is roughly 600–700 points from the first level below and about 1,800 from the first level above, so the downside level is closer.
As for whales and large traders: the large-trader long/short position ratio was about 1.81 a day ago and is now around 1.85. Long positions are still at roughly 65%, with little change. The overall market account long/short ratio tells a different story: after dropping to around 1.89 this morning, it had rebounded to 2.16 by noon, as retail traders bought the dip and added longs again. Over the past six hours, the average taker buy/sell ratio has been around 0.89, with sell volume outweighing buy volume, so short-term selling pressure is still there. $ETH is around 2320 and about as weak as BTC, so I won’t give it a separate directional call.
So my view on this move is straightforward: the long-liquidation zone below is closer, and retail traders have just pushed the long/short ratio back up. In the short term, price is more likely to sweep down to 79500–79200 first. Don’t try to catch the falling knife. If price reclaims 80400 on declining volume, then we can talk about 80800–81000. If it breaks below 79500, reduce leverage on contracts first; the hard support is still 79220. If that breaks too, watch out for the 78200–78000 zone getting hit. Keep holding spot; stay conservative with leverage on contracts.
Data is from Binance spot, USDT-margined contract open interest, and /futures/data large-trader long/short ratios, account long/short ratios, and taker buy/sell volume, as of around 12:50 p.m. Beijing time today.
For liquidations, I estimated the levels using publicly available changes in Binance’s USDT-margined open interest and typical leverage tiers; this isn’t an off-the-shelf exchange heatmap. The nearest dense cluster of long liquidations below is at 79500–79200, followed by 78200–78000, with a much larger cluster at 77000–76200. Above, the nearest short-liquidation levels are around 82000–82100, then 83200–84200, with another cluster farther out around 87000. The current price is roughly 600–700 points from the first level below and about 1,800 from the first level above, so the downside level is closer.
As for whales and large traders: the large-trader long/short position ratio was about 1.81 a day ago and is now around 1.85. Long positions are still at roughly 65%, with little change. The overall market account long/short ratio tells a different story: after dropping to around 1.89 this morning, it had rebounded to 2.16 by noon, as retail traders bought the dip and added longs again. Over the past six hours, the average taker buy/sell ratio has been around 0.89, with sell volume outweighing buy volume, so short-term selling pressure is still there. $ETH is around 2320 and about as weak as BTC, so I won’t give it a separate directional call.
So my view on this move is straightforward: the long-liquidation zone below is closer, and retail traders have just pushed the long/short ratio back up. In the short term, price is more likely to sweep down to 79500–79200 first. Don’t try to catch the falling knife. If price reclaims 80400 on declining volume, then we can talk about 80800–81000. If it breaks below 79500, reduce leverage on contracts first; the hard support is still 79220. If that breaks too, watch out for the 78200–78000 zone getting hit. Keep holding spot; stay conservative with leverage on contracts.
Data is from Binance spot, USDT-margined contract open interest, and /futures/data large-trader long/short ratios, account long/short ratios, and taker buy/sell volume, as of around 12:50 p.m. Beijing time today.
