II. In-Depth Analysis of the Ethereum Market: Multiple Negative Factors Push Price Below Key Support; Extremely Oversold Conditions Await Signs of Stabilization
On October 29, 2026, Ethereum extended its recent weakness. As of 10:00 a.m. Beijing time, ETH was trading at around $2,297, down approximately 2.05% over the past 24 hours. The price continued to slide from the $2,360 area, touching a low of $2,293. Hit by a combination of macroeconomic headwinds and on-chain selling pressure, Ethereum’s technical indicators are now showing extreme oversold conditions.
I. Price Action Analysis
On the hourly chart, Ethereum’s decline has closely tracked Bitcoin’s, but with a larger drop. The price fell steadily from the $2,359 area. The third bearish candle had the largest body, with an hourly drop of more than $40 and trading volume surging to $35.68 million—over five times that of the previous hour. The price then briefly stabilized between $2,312 and $2,318, but failed to mount a meaningful rebound and fell again to $2,293. Trading volume on the latest candle eased to $9.96 million, indicating that bears have temporarily slowed their advance.
According to the Bollinger Bands, the price has broken below the lower band at $2,307, a clear sign of weakness. If the previous low of $2,293 fails to hold, the next downside targets could be $2,280 and even the $2,250 area. Short-term resistance lies near the Bollinger Bands’ middle line at $2,348.
II. Technical Indicator Analysis
Ethereum’s short-term technical indicators are more bearish than Bitcoin’s. RSI6 has fallen to 17.0, a recent low and far below the oversold threshold. RSI12 is at 29.2 and RSI24 at 38.9, both in bearish territory. The KDJ indicators are all trending lower: K is at 23.9, D at 35.3, and J at just 1.0, close to extreme oversold territory.
For MACD, the DIF line has fallen to -5.64, the DEA line is at 0.32, and the histogram has deepened to -5.96, indicating that bearish momentum continues to build. As with Bitcoin, 11 of Ethereum’s 15 quantitative factors are signaling a long position, or 73.3%. This suggests the medium-term structure still has room to recover, although bears have overwhelming control in the short term.
In terms of moving averages, the 7-hour moving average at $2,338 has crossed below the 25-hour moving average at $2,349, forming a short-term bearish alignment. EMA7 has fallen to $2,329, well below EMA25 at $2,343 and EMA99 at $2,346, with all three averages in a typical bearish alignment. Notably, the price has fallen below all major moving averages, so any short-term rebound will need to reclaim these levels one by one.
III. Market Sentiment Analysis
Ethereum is facing sentiment pressures on multiple fronts. First, macroeconomic risk aversion sparked by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish decision has hit ETH particularly hard. As a high-beta asset, Ethereum tends to fall further when risk appetite declines. Second, on-chain data shows that wallets belonging to early ICO participants have begun transferring more than 9,700 ETH to exchanges, creating recent net selling pressure of over $22 million. This selling pressure from long-held positions has dealt a significant blow to market confidence.
On the positive side, the launch of ENS v2 and progress on institutional banking integrations briefly drove a rebound during the session, but both were overwhelmed by larger sell orders. Open interest on DeFi derivatives platforms such as Hyperliquid surged by more than 100% to approximately $13 billion, indicating very high leveraged trading activity. However, this also means that once the market picks a direction, a severe cascade of liquidations could follow.
Overall, Ethereum is extremely oversold in the short term, but there is no clear signal that the decline has bottomed. Consider waiting for RSI6 to rise above 25 and the MACD histogram to narrow before entering the market. Key support is at $2,293; a break below this level would raise the risk of further declines. The first major resistance is near $2,350.
Hot Tokens at a Glance:
INIT Current price: $0.2208; 24-hour gain: 29.67%; vulnerability patch plan boosts market confidence
WENB Current price: $7.04; 24-hour gain: 14.85%; notable inflows
BLUR Current price: $0.00837; 24-hour gain: 12.35%; renewed interest in the NFT sector
#以太坊超卖分析 #ETH支撑位关注 #ActiveDeFiDerivatives
On October 29, 2026, Ethereum extended its recent weakness. As of 10:00 a.m. Beijing time, ETH was trading at around $2,297, down approximately 2.05% over the past 24 hours. The price continued to slide from the $2,360 area, touching a low of $2,293. Hit by a combination of macroeconomic headwinds and on-chain selling pressure, Ethereum’s technical indicators are now showing extreme oversold conditions.
I. Price Action Analysis
On the hourly chart, Ethereum’s decline has closely tracked Bitcoin’s, but with a larger drop. The price fell steadily from the $2,359 area. The third bearish candle had the largest body, with an hourly drop of more than $40 and trading volume surging to $35.68 million—over five times that of the previous hour. The price then briefly stabilized between $2,312 and $2,318, but failed to mount a meaningful rebound and fell again to $2,293. Trading volume on the latest candle eased to $9.96 million, indicating that bears have temporarily slowed their advance.
According to the Bollinger Bands, the price has broken below the lower band at $2,307, a clear sign of weakness. If the previous low of $2,293 fails to hold, the next downside targets could be $2,280 and even the $2,250 area. Short-term resistance lies near the Bollinger Bands’ middle line at $2,348.
II. Technical Indicator Analysis
Ethereum’s short-term technical indicators are more bearish than Bitcoin’s. RSI6 has fallen to 17.0, a recent low and far below the oversold threshold. RSI12 is at 29.2 and RSI24 at 38.9, both in bearish territory. The KDJ indicators are all trending lower: K is at 23.9, D at 35.3, and J at just 1.0, close to extreme oversold territory.
For MACD, the DIF line has fallen to -5.64, the DEA line is at 0.32, and the histogram has deepened to -5.96, indicating that bearish momentum continues to build. As with Bitcoin, 11 of Ethereum’s 15 quantitative factors are signaling a long position, or 73.3%. This suggests the medium-term structure still has room to recover, although bears have overwhelming control in the short term.
In terms of moving averages, the 7-hour moving average at $2,338 has crossed below the 25-hour moving average at $2,349, forming a short-term bearish alignment. EMA7 has fallen to $2,329, well below EMA25 at $2,343 and EMA99 at $2,346, with all three averages in a typical bearish alignment. Notably, the price has fallen below all major moving averages, so any short-term rebound will need to reclaim these levels one by one.
III. Market Sentiment Analysis
Ethereum is facing sentiment pressures on multiple fronts. First, macroeconomic risk aversion sparked by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish decision has hit ETH particularly hard. As a high-beta asset, Ethereum tends to fall further when risk appetite declines. Second, on-chain data shows that wallets belonging to early ICO participants have begun transferring more than 9,700 ETH to exchanges, creating recent net selling pressure of over $22 million. This selling pressure from long-held positions has dealt a significant blow to market confidence.
On the positive side, the launch of ENS v2 and progress on institutional banking integrations briefly drove a rebound during the session, but both were overwhelmed by larger sell orders. Open interest on DeFi derivatives platforms such as Hyperliquid surged by more than 100% to approximately $13 billion, indicating very high leveraged trading activity. However, this also means that once the market picks a direction, a severe cascade of liquidations could follow.
Overall, Ethereum is extremely oversold in the short term, but there is no clear signal that the decline has bottomed. Consider waiting for RSI6 to rise above 25 and the MACD histogram to narrow before entering the market. Key support is at $2,293; a break below this level would raise the risk of further declines. The first major resistance is near $2,350.
Hot Tokens at a Glance:
INIT Current price: $0.2208; 24-hour gain: 29.67%; vulnerability patch plan boosts market confidence
WENB Current price: $7.04; 24-hour gain: 14.85%; notable inflows
BLUR Current price: $0.00837; 24-hour gain: 12.35%; renewed interest in the NFT sector
#以太坊超卖分析 #ETH支撑位关注 #ActiveDeFiDerivatives