Honestly, after last night’s rate decision, what caught my attention most wasn’t those two votes for a rate hike, but the dollar and Treasury market’s reaction. After seeing it, I’m a bit puzzled.

Going by the usual script, a weaker dollar and falling short-term yields should give risk assets some breathing room. During Warsh’s press conference last night, the dollar weakened across the board against major currencies, and the 2-year Treasury yield fell about 5 basis points. But $BTC is now around $80,425, down slightly over the past 24 hours, while $ETH is also going nowhere, hovering around 2,330.

My understanding is that the problem is at the long end: the 10-year Treasury yield rose instead of falling, climbing above 5%. The market seems to be saying that there’s no rush to hike rates in the near term, but inflation isn’t over. With a 5% risk-free yield on offer, there’s little reason for money to rush into high-volatility assets. That may be why crypto prices aren’t tracking the dollar.

The second thing I think is being underestimated is MSCI’s new rule. Under the rules MSCI announced in mid-October, “non-operating companies” will be removed from its global indexes. Strategy is on the list of companies that could be excluded. The final list will be announced on November 11, and the changes will take effect at market close on November 30. If it really gets kicked out, passive funds that track the index will have to sell its shares, which could affect Strategy’s pace of raising funds to buy crypto. It’s not happening tomorrow, but I’ve already marked November 11 on my calendar.

The third thing is somewhat positive: Moody’s gave Ripple’s stablecoin RLUSD an A2 rating, and Coinbase has also listed it. Traditional rating agencies are starting to rate stablecoins, opening the door a little wider for compliant capital to enter—but this is a slow-moving factor when it comes to token prices.

So my view right now is that macro hasn’t delivered any bad news, but it hasn’t hit the gas either. Tonight’s GDP and PCE data at 8:30 are the real test 😅

Do you think MSCI kicking Strategy out would be a major negative, or has the market already priced it in?

Just my personal opinion, not investment advice. Markets carry risks, so manage your positions carefully.

#美联储 #宏观经济 #MicroStrategy #Bitcoin