The Fed just held rates steady, and before markets have even had a chance to catch their breath, another "double test" is coming tonight at 20:30 Beijing time: the first estimate of U.S. third-quarter GDP and the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, PCE, released at the same time.

First, the news:

Last night, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, but two members voted to "raise rates immediately." Chair Warsh said they need "more data" to decide what to do next—well, isn’t that just waiting for tonight’s PCE report? After the meeting, the Treasury yield curve steepened noticeably, signaling that the bond market isn’t fully convinced inflation will return to 2% on schedule.

My honest take:

1) The real wildcard this time isn’t interest rates—it’s inflation. Oil prices have been climbing again lately. If PCE comes in hot, calls for “another rate hike” will get louder, and tech stocks and assets like $BTC that are sensitive to liquidity will probably take the first hit.

2) If PCE is mild and GDP is holding up, then the “soft landing” script keeps playing, and those two hawkish votes last night will look like a stubborn minority.

3) As a retail investor who dollar-cost averages into the Nasdaq and S&P 500 every month, my approach is simple: I watch the data, but I don’t touch my positions. Macroeconomic data can send the market swinging all over the place overnight, but the whole point of dollar-cost averaging is not to join in the market’s square dance.

Of course, who doesn’t love a bit of drama? $ETH $BTC There’ll probably be a lot of whipsawing tonight, so short-term traders should watch their position sizes.

Let’s hear from you:

What do you think tonight’s PCE will be? A. Hotter than expected, rate-hike bets return B. In line with expectations, nothing happens C. Cooler than expected, the market goes wild?

Leave a letter in the comments, and we’ll check the answer tomorrow morning 👇

(Personal opinion; not investment advice)