Honestly, I went to bed at 2 a.m. last night expecting to wake up to a shock. Instead, I checked and BTC was hovering around 81,100, up or down just 0.5% over 24 hours.
Everyone expected the Fed to hold rates steady. What really surprised me was the vote: 10 to 2, with two officials wanting to hike rates right then and there. Waller also struck a hawkish tone after the meeting, saying inflation was “still elevated” and giving no hint of a dovish turn. The market promptly pushed the odds of a December rate hike to 82.6%.
Going by the usual script, news like this would send crypto prices plunging in a flash crash. But this time? Options-market implied volatility (DVOL) sat around 37.6 both before and after the meeting, barely moving at all. Perpetual funding rates even dipped a little.
My own take is that the rate hike has already been mostly “priced in.” The crypto market didn’t crash after the September hike, and this time it’s just “no change to the hawkish stance,” so people can’t be bothered to sell all over again. The fact that bad news isn’t pushing prices lower is itself a bullish signal.
But I don’t want to overstate it.
$BTC The current price action is awkward. The low for the past 30 days was just above 80,000, and it’s held up through repeated retests over the past few days. Yesterday, price briefly pushed above the 81,700 area but couldn’t hold. In short, we’re still in a narrow range. The Fed decision didn’t break it, so the direction will most likely be determined by tonight’s data.
$ETH ETH doesn’t look nearly as good. It’s around 2,350 now, down 5% over the past seven days and noticeably weaker than BTC. Spot ETH ETFs have seen net outflows of over a billion dollars this month. Institutions are voting with their feet, and I’m not convinced ETH will lead the way.
The standout among altcoins today is $BNB, up 2.5% in the past 24 hours. It’s also one of the few major coins in the green over the past seven days—it's been a really steady week. LTC is up more than 4% in a day, while LINK and UNI have gained 2% to 3%, making this a bit of a catch-up rally for older coins. By contrast, NEAR and ADA are both down more than 9% over the week. NEAR’s spot ETF also saw outflows the day before yesterday. The weak keep getting weaker, and I’d rather just watch for now.
As for sentiment, the Fear and Greed Index is at 51, right in the middle. Neither greedy nor fearful—this is when it’s easiest to get swept up by one big green or red candle.
The time I’m watching most closely today is 8:30 p.m., when the US GDP and PCE inflation figures come out together. The Fed just said inflation is “elevated.” If PCE comes in hotter than expected, a December rate hike will basically be a done deal, and the 80,000 level will be put to a serious test. On the other hand, if the data is mild, I think 81,700 could get another run. Coinbase and Strategy report earnings tomorrow morning, and options expire on Friday, so volatility over the next couple of days will probably be even higher than it was during last night’s Fed decision 😅
My own approach is simple: don’t chase or sell in the middle of the range. I’ll wait for it to pick a direction, and keep some flexibility in my position size.
Here’s a question for everyone: after tonight’s PCE report, do you think BTC will hit 81,700 first or fall back to 80,000 first? Share your reasoning in the comments 👇
This is just my personal opinion, not investment advice. Markets involve risk, so manage your position size responsibly.