Yesterday I said to short between 81,000 and 81,300, with a target of 79,500. BTC did enter that zone, dipping to a low of 80,355—just 1,500 points away from the target—before bouncing back. This kind of price action tells us one thing: the bears aren’t strong enough, and the bulls aren’t dead yet.
BTC is now at $81,202, and it’s been ranging between 81,000 and 81,800 for nearly 24 hours. Every attempt to move lower has found support, while every attempt to break above 81,800 has run out of steam. I call this the tug-of-war phase—a battle of attrition, with both sides waiting for the other to show weakness first.
Here’s what the Brahma data shows me: the retail LSR is over 65% long, meaning two-thirds of retail traders are betting on a rise. On the surface, that looks bullish, but it’s exactly the signal that worries me most. When retail traders pile into longs, what do the big players do? Sweep their stop losses. ETH’s numbers are even more extreme, with 76% of retail traders long—more crowded than BTC. An LSR like this usually means the last wave of retail bulls is piling in.
Structurally, $81,355 is the midpoint of a Bear FVG, putting pressure right around the current price. Below it, a Bull FVG at $80,983–$81,050 is providing support. In other words, the market is caught between two unfilled gaps, and neither side is giving way. The true direction won’t be clear until one of these gaps gets filled.
To the downside, $80,355 is yesterday’s low and the most recent area where retail stop losses are clustered. The real liquidity pool lies lower, at 79,500–79,800, where there’s a batch of long stop-loss orders that haven’t been swept in a long time. If the big players are going hunting, that’s their ultimate target. To the upside, 81,800 is the 24-hour high. A breakout would matter, but OI hasn’t confirmed it—open interest has barely moved. I don’t trust a rally driven by just a few small bursts of buying.
My call is to keep waiting. What are we waiting for? For BTC to break below 81,000 and confirm that the Bull FVG isn’t holding. That would signal an acceleration to the downside. If it can’t break lower and bounces back to 81,800 only to get rejected again, I’d consider a small short position, with the stop loss above 82,200. I’ll only take the trade if the risk is manageable.
The most dangerous move right now is chasing longs at 81,200. Your stop would need to be below 80,800 to be effective, and the first sharp drop could wash you out.
FOMC is 12 days away. During this macro window, the market likes to wear down sentiment with choppy price action. No need to rush—wait for the structure to take shape before making a move.
Are you holding a long and waiting for a bounce, or waiting for confirmation before entering? Let’s talk in the comments.
Follow me for livestreams and SMC lessons every night at 21:00.
🌿 Zhao, Unfiltered | Not financial advice
BTC is now at $81,202, and it’s been ranging between 81,000 and 81,800 for nearly 24 hours. Every attempt to move lower has found support, while every attempt to break above 81,800 has run out of steam. I call this the tug-of-war phase—a battle of attrition, with both sides waiting for the other to show weakness first.
Here’s what the Brahma data shows me: the retail LSR is over 65% long, meaning two-thirds of retail traders are betting on a rise. On the surface, that looks bullish, but it’s exactly the signal that worries me most. When retail traders pile into longs, what do the big players do? Sweep their stop losses. ETH’s numbers are even more extreme, with 76% of retail traders long—more crowded than BTC. An LSR like this usually means the last wave of retail bulls is piling in.
Structurally, $81,355 is the midpoint of a Bear FVG, putting pressure right around the current price. Below it, a Bull FVG at $80,983–$81,050 is providing support. In other words, the market is caught between two unfilled gaps, and neither side is giving way. The true direction won’t be clear until one of these gaps gets filled.
To the downside, $80,355 is yesterday’s low and the most recent area where retail stop losses are clustered. The real liquidity pool lies lower, at 79,500–79,800, where there’s a batch of long stop-loss orders that haven’t been swept in a long time. If the big players are going hunting, that’s their ultimate target. To the upside, 81,800 is the 24-hour high. A breakout would matter, but OI hasn’t confirmed it—open interest has barely moved. I don’t trust a rally driven by just a few small bursts of buying.
My call is to keep waiting. What are we waiting for? For BTC to break below 81,000 and confirm that the Bull FVG isn’t holding. That would signal an acceleration to the downside. If it can’t break lower and bounces back to 81,800 only to get rejected again, I’d consider a small short position, with the stop loss above 82,200. I’ll only take the trade if the risk is manageable.
The most dangerous move right now is chasing longs at 81,200. Your stop would need to be below 80,800 to be effective, and the first sharp drop could wash you out.
FOMC is 12 days away. During this macro window, the market likes to wear down sentiment with choppy price action. No need to rush—wait for the structure to take shape before making a move.
Are you holding a long and waiting for a bounce, or waiting for confirmation before entering? Let’s talk in the comments.
Follow me for livestreams and SMC lessons every night at 21:00.
🌿 Zhao, Unfiltered | Not financial advice