The options market is pricing in a 9.4% move for Intel tonight—less than the average reaction to its past four earnings reports.
Intel ($INTC ) will report its third-quarter 2026 results after the U.S. market closes tonight. The earnings call is at 17:00 Eastern Time, or 5:00 a.m. on October 30 Beijing time.
1. The market expects earnings per share of about $0.39–$0.40 and revenue of about $16.44–$16.50 billion. Estimates from 36 analysts put EPS between $0.37 and $0.48 and revenue between $16.28 billion and $17.03 billion;
2. In the same quarter last year, Intel reported EPS of $0.23 and revenue of $13.65 billion. The forecasts imply year-over-year revenue growth of about 21% and EPS growth of about 74%;
3. Options imply a post-earnings move of about 9.4%. Based on the October 27 closing price of $93.74, that corresponds roughly to a range of $84.91–$102.57. The average move over the past four earnings reports was 12.2%, with individual moves ranging from a 17.03% drop to a 23.60% gain—up twice and down twice;
4. The stock’s recent performance is mixed: it is up more than 150% year to date, but down 20.1% over the past month, with a market cap of about $495.5 billion. Zacks’ indicator for an earnings beat is positive, with revisions about 2.22% above consensus and a Buy rating. Wedbush maintained its Hold rating and $98 price target, saying Intel could exceed its guidance, though weak PC demand and memory and substrate costs could limit the size of any beat.
My view is that the verdict on this report won’t come from the revenue line, but from three things: whether gross margin holds up, whether the data center and AI businesses can pick up the baton, and whether fourth-quarter guidance on the call is raised or tightened. Meeting or beating expectations on both results and guidance would keep the turnaround narrative alive. If results meet expectations but guidance is cautious, the market may first price in the good news. If gross margin or the foundry business disappoints, the revenue-growth story will need a rethink. Options pricing implies a narrower move than the historical average, but actual moves exceeding what options price in are not uncommon. I wouldn’t chase the first move at the open; I’d wait for the call to clarify guidance and gross margin, then assess the direction.
Data as of: 2026-10-28 23:10 UTC
For informational purposes only; not investment advice.
Intel ($INTC ) will report its third-quarter 2026 results after the U.S. market closes tonight. The earnings call is at 17:00 Eastern Time, or 5:00 a.m. on October 30 Beijing time.
1. The market expects earnings per share of about $0.39–$0.40 and revenue of about $16.44–$16.50 billion. Estimates from 36 analysts put EPS between $0.37 and $0.48 and revenue between $16.28 billion and $17.03 billion;
2. In the same quarter last year, Intel reported EPS of $0.23 and revenue of $13.65 billion. The forecasts imply year-over-year revenue growth of about 21% and EPS growth of about 74%;
3. Options imply a post-earnings move of about 9.4%. Based on the October 27 closing price of $93.74, that corresponds roughly to a range of $84.91–$102.57. The average move over the past four earnings reports was 12.2%, with individual moves ranging from a 17.03% drop to a 23.60% gain—up twice and down twice;
4. The stock’s recent performance is mixed: it is up more than 150% year to date, but down 20.1% over the past month, with a market cap of about $495.5 billion. Zacks’ indicator for an earnings beat is positive, with revisions about 2.22% above consensus and a Buy rating. Wedbush maintained its Hold rating and $98 price target, saying Intel could exceed its guidance, though weak PC demand and memory and substrate costs could limit the size of any beat.
My view is that the verdict on this report won’t come from the revenue line, but from three things: whether gross margin holds up, whether the data center and AI businesses can pick up the baton, and whether fourth-quarter guidance on the call is raised or tightened. Meeting or beating expectations on both results and guidance would keep the turnaround narrative alive. If results meet expectations but guidance is cautious, the market may first price in the good news. If gross margin or the foundry business disappoints, the revenue-growth story will need a rethink. Options pricing implies a narrower move than the historical average, but actual moves exceeding what options price in are not uncommon. I wouldn’t chase the first move at the open; I’d wait for the call to clarify guidance and gross margin, then assess the direction.
Data as of: 2026-10-28 23:10 UTC
For informational purposes only; not investment advice.
