Bitwise released its “2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions,” forecasting that Bitcoin will reach $1.6 million by 2036.

1. 34.3% annualized growth
Compared with Bitcoin’s historical performance, this is actually a deliberately “conservative” model. Bitwise assumes that volatility will gradually decline as institutional capital flows in. Average volatility over the next ten years is projected at 27.8%; MSTR estimates 20–30%.

2. The core logic behind this forecast
Institutional allocations of 1%–5%: Could bring in trillions of dollars in actual buying demand.
Extremely limited supply elasticity: Marginal pricing could drive a nonlinear price surge.
The effect of gold’s reserve status: Bitcoin could reach a portion of gold’s market capitalization as a “store of value” asset.

3. What may be too optimistic
Overall liquidity: The forecast is heavily based on continued inflation of global fiat currencies.
Regulatory and geopolitical headwinds: Comprehensive taxation could be introduced, directly cutting off the channels through which compliant institutional capital flows in.
Technological disruption: The impact of quantum computing on cryptography, or AI’s effect on market structure, is unpredictable.

My take:
Honestly, an annualized 30% return isn’t that high. Here are the annualized returns of these companies from 2020 to 2026:
$NVDA : approximately 460%
$AMD : approximately 220%
AVGO: approximately 172%
So I think Bitwise’s forecast is plausible! What do you think?