At this point in the U.S. session, everyone's eyes are glued to Microsoft and Google’s earnings, while trouble is quietly brewing in oil.
U.S. crude jumped $3 overnight, triggered by an escalation in the conflict in Yemen, putting Middle East supply chains back on everyone’s mind. The data added to the turmoil: EIA crude inventories unexpectedly fell by 1.9 million barrels, while the market had expected them to be unchanged. Even more alarming was the World Bank’s warning that global oil supply will fall 5.2% in 2026—the biggest decline in more than four decades, excluding 2020.
Politics isn’t helping either. Trump bluntly warned that if the midterm elections aren’t “honest and fair,” he won’t accept the results. U.S.-Iran talks have completely stalled: Iran says it can’t accept the proposal put forward by Qatar, and the WSJ reports that the U.S. is planning to take action against Iran after the elections. The good news is that a Putin-Zelensky meeting will be “arranged soon,” suggesting some signs of easing on the Russia-Ukraine front.
Here’s my take: shrinking supply plus a geopolitical premium means oil prices are unlikely to come down in the short term, keeping inflation expectations elevated. Market pricing over the next few days is anyone’s guess. Don’t assume crypto can stay insulated—when macro volatility picks up, $BTC $ETH , no one is immune. Keep your positions in check for now and wait for things to settle.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #以太坊 #宏观经济 #地缘政治 #OilPrices
U.S. crude jumped $3 overnight, triggered by an escalation in the conflict in Yemen, putting Middle East supply chains back on everyone’s mind. The data added to the turmoil: EIA crude inventories unexpectedly fell by 1.9 million barrels, while the market had expected them to be unchanged. Even more alarming was the World Bank’s warning that global oil supply will fall 5.2% in 2026—the biggest decline in more than four decades, excluding 2020.
Politics isn’t helping either. Trump bluntly warned that if the midterm elections aren’t “honest and fair,” he won’t accept the results. U.S.-Iran talks have completely stalled: Iran says it can’t accept the proposal put forward by Qatar, and the WSJ reports that the U.S. is planning to take action against Iran after the elections. The good news is that a Putin-Zelensky meeting will be “arranged soon,” suggesting some signs of easing on the Russia-Ukraine front.
Here’s my take: shrinking supply plus a geopolitical premium means oil prices are unlikely to come down in the short term, keeping inflation expectations elevated. Market pricing over the next few days is anyone’s guess. Don’t assume crypto can stay insulated—when macro volatility picks up, $BTC $ETH , no one is immune. Keep your positions in check for now and wait for things to settle.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #以太坊 #宏观经济 #地缘政治 #OilPrices