The press conference wrapped up at 2:30 a.m. Wash had an interesting way of putting it—the gist was that more information was needed to assess the appropriate policy stance. In other words: nobody’s willing to say for sure whether there’ll be a rate hike in December.
What’s interesting is that the market actually raised the odds of a December hike after hearing that. CME FedWatch went from 78% a day earlier to 86%. The 2-year Treasury yield edged lower, slipping from 4.78% to 4.73%. Bitcoin $BTC followed suit, recovering from its post-decision low of 80397 to hit 81621. It’s now hovering around 81245.
This is a pretty awkward spot. To the upside, it hasn’t managed to hold above 81823 today. To the downside, 80397 has just been tested once, and the 50-day moving average at 80829 is right underfoot. Honestly, the longer price churns in this range, the more it feels like it’s waiting for an outside force to give it a shove.
That force may be coming soon: PCE inflation and third-quarter GDP on Thursday, another round of options expirations on Friday, and the midterm elections next Tuesday. That 86% December figure basically means the market has already priced in a hawkish outcome and is waiting for the data to confirm it.
Fear and Greed Index: 51. Plaza Index: 47. Both neutral—no one’s greedy, and no one’s afraid. If you stayed up to watch the press conference, you can go to sleep now. The market’s not much better off than it was before the press conference, but it’s not much worse either.
What’s interesting is that the market actually raised the odds of a December hike after hearing that. CME FedWatch went from 78% a day earlier to 86%. The 2-year Treasury yield edged lower, slipping from 4.78% to 4.73%. Bitcoin $BTC followed suit, recovering from its post-decision low of 80397 to hit 81621. It’s now hovering around 81245.
This is a pretty awkward spot. To the upside, it hasn’t managed to hold above 81823 today. To the downside, 80397 has just been tested once, and the 50-day moving average at 80829 is right underfoot. Honestly, the longer price churns in this range, the more it feels like it’s waiting for an outside force to give it a shove.
That force may be coming soon: PCE inflation and third-quarter GDP on Thursday, another round of options expirations on Friday, and the midterm elections next Tuesday. That 86% December figure basically means the market has already priced in a hawkish outcome and is waiting for the data to confirm it.
Fear and Greed Index: 51. Plaza Index: 47. Both neutral—no one’s greedy, and no one’s afraid. If you stayed up to watch the press conference, you can go to sleep now. The market’s not much better off than it was before the press conference, but it’s not much worse either.
