Glassnode: ETF buying weakens; $BTC could test $78K
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode noted in its 10/28 Week on Chain report: Support from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs is weakening. After recording inflows of about $653 million in a single day on 10/19, ETFs saw outflows of about $540 million on 10/22, followed by cumulative net inflows of only about $67 million over the next two weeks. ETF trading volume was about $700 million on 10/23, roughly half the daily average of about $1.3 billion since May. Since January this year, $BTC has closed above $85K on only five daily candles. After reaching about $87.1K on 9/23, it has repeatedly been rejected at $84K–$85K. On Binance’s order book, after the pullback on 10/24, large buy orders moved down from around $80K to $78K–$79K, totaling about $42 million. The ETF cost basis is around $81.5K, while the True Market Mean is about $77.9K. (Source: Glassnode / The Crypto Times)
【View】
The Federal Reserve has held rates steady, but two dissenting votes and expectations of a December rate hike remain, keeping risk assets from making a strong push. The current picture looks more like “heavy overhead selling pressure, with buy orders moving lower.” Without strong support from ETFs, the $80K area could easily give way, putting the liquidation cluster and cost-basis zone near $78K in focus.
【Opportunities/Risks】
Watch whether $BTC can post consecutive daily closes above $85K and turn resistance into support. If it falls below $79.5K–$80K, keep an eye on whether buy orders at $78K–$79K can absorb the selling, and whether ETFs return to net inflows. Long-term holders have about 4 million BTC with a cost basis in the $85K–$118K range, which could become selling pressure during a rebound.
Do you think the next major move is more likely to plunge toward $78K first, or break above $85K?
#比特币 #ETF #链上数据 $BTC
For reference only; this is not investment advice.
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode noted in its 10/28 Week on Chain report: Support from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs is weakening. After recording inflows of about $653 million in a single day on 10/19, ETFs saw outflows of about $540 million on 10/22, followed by cumulative net inflows of only about $67 million over the next two weeks. ETF trading volume was about $700 million on 10/23, roughly half the daily average of about $1.3 billion since May. Since January this year, $BTC has closed above $85K on only five daily candles. After reaching about $87.1K on 9/23, it has repeatedly been rejected at $84K–$85K. On Binance’s order book, after the pullback on 10/24, large buy orders moved down from around $80K to $78K–$79K, totaling about $42 million. The ETF cost basis is around $81.5K, while the True Market Mean is about $77.9K. (Source: Glassnode / The Crypto Times)
【View】
The Federal Reserve has held rates steady, but two dissenting votes and expectations of a December rate hike remain, keeping risk assets from making a strong push. The current picture looks more like “heavy overhead selling pressure, with buy orders moving lower.” Without strong support from ETFs, the $80K area could easily give way, putting the liquidation cluster and cost-basis zone near $78K in focus.
【Opportunities/Risks】
Watch whether $BTC can post consecutive daily closes above $85K and turn resistance into support. If it falls below $79.5K–$80K, keep an eye on whether buy orders at $78K–$79K can absorb the selling, and whether ETFs return to net inflows. Long-term holders have about 4 million BTC with a cost basis in the $85K–$118K range, which could become selling pressure during a rebound.
Do you think the next major move is more likely to plunge toward $78K first, or break above $85K?
#比特币 #ETF #链上数据 $BTC
For reference only; this is not investment advice.
