BTC options expiry tops trending list | ETH options worth about $790 million settle the same day | Not betting on a $2,500 magnetic pull
My stance is to wait and see, not go long just because of the words “max pain.” Binance Square’s trending list currently shows “#$10.9 billion in Bitcoin options expire Friday.” This isn’t just about BTC: the official Binance News account also mentioned that about $776 million in ETH options on Deribit expire at 08:00 UTC on October 30, with a stated max pain level of around $2,500. I queried Deribit’s public options API directly and filtered for contracts expiring on 30OCT26. The result was open interest of about 333,600 ETH, comprising roughly 188,300 calls and 145,300 puts. Using Kraken’s ETH price of about $2,355 at the time of the query, I estimated the notional value at roughly $786 million. The two figures are similar, but they were sampled at different times and prices, and notional open interest is not the same as net funds about to enter the spot market.
The ETH max pain level cited by Binance News is above the current price, while BTC’s reference level is below it. These are only model levels; they do not mean hedging trades will inevitably push prices toward them. Around options expiry, market makers’ dynamic hedging may amplify intraday volatility, or it may ease as time value decays. The direction depends on positions around the strike prices and real-time prices. You can’t simply infer from the number of call contracts that ETH will rise to $2,500. If BTC plunges due to month-end settlement, ETH’s model level won’t prevent overall risk appetite from declining.
Institutional flows offer another measure. According to Farside, U.S. spot ETH funds saw combined net outflows of about $60.2 million on October 27. On October 28, the entries for individual funds were still dashes, so the reported total of 0.0 should not be treated as definitive proof of zero flows. On October 28, the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75%–4%, with two members favoring a rate hike. The macro picture has not provided a clear dovish signal for high-volatility assets. So my view is that the options narrative will add short-term noise, but the real direction still needs to be confirmed by price action, spot trading volume, and subsequent fund-flow data.
How has the market reacted so far? When I checked Kraken, ETH was around $2,355—above the day’s open of $2,347, but still below the high of $2,384. The low was about $2,320. BTC was around $81,100 at the same time. ETH has not come close to $2,500 for now, and this rebound cannot be attributed to options settlement. I see $2,384 as the short-term confirmation level and $2,320 as the invalidation level. If ETH breaks below $2,320 and fails to recover it, any short-term bullish view should be withdrawn. If it holds above $2,384 on strong volume, then I’ll watch for spot buying to follow through. $2,500 is simply a more distant area to monitor, not an unconditional target.
If I were trading myself, I would sit this one out for now, with no directional position and 0% allocated. Only if ETH breaks above $2,384 and holds on a retest, while BTC stays above its intraday low, would I consider a small spot long using 2% of my total capital. Those two conditions are the entry triggers. The first target is $2,420; I’d reduce the position by half there. I’d hold the rest only if volume remains strong as ETH approaches $2,460; otherwise, I’d close it. I’d stop out if ETH falls back to $2,350 after entry. If ETH first loses $2,320 or BTC weakens at the same time, I’d immediately cancel the plan and close the position. If the conditions aren’t met, I’ll keep waiting, avoid high leverage, and won’t present an untriggered plan as a gain.
Sources: Binance Square trending list, Binance News, Deribit public API, Kraken, Farside, and the Federal Reserve’s October 28 statement. #109亿美元比特币期权周五到期 #ETH #BTC
This is only my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
My stance is to wait and see, not go long just because of the words “max pain.” Binance Square’s trending list currently shows “#$10.9 billion in Bitcoin options expire Friday.” This isn’t just about BTC: the official Binance News account also mentioned that about $776 million in ETH options on Deribit expire at 08:00 UTC on October 30, with a stated max pain level of around $2,500. I queried Deribit’s public options API directly and filtered for contracts expiring on 30OCT26. The result was open interest of about 333,600 ETH, comprising roughly 188,300 calls and 145,300 puts. Using Kraken’s ETH price of about $2,355 at the time of the query, I estimated the notional value at roughly $786 million. The two figures are similar, but they were sampled at different times and prices, and notional open interest is not the same as net funds about to enter the spot market.
The ETH max pain level cited by Binance News is above the current price, while BTC’s reference level is below it. These are only model levels; they do not mean hedging trades will inevitably push prices toward them. Around options expiry, market makers’ dynamic hedging may amplify intraday volatility, or it may ease as time value decays. The direction depends on positions around the strike prices and real-time prices. You can’t simply infer from the number of call contracts that ETH will rise to $2,500. If BTC plunges due to month-end settlement, ETH’s model level won’t prevent overall risk appetite from declining.
Institutional flows offer another measure. According to Farside, U.S. spot ETH funds saw combined net outflows of about $60.2 million on October 27. On October 28, the entries for individual funds were still dashes, so the reported total of 0.0 should not be treated as definitive proof of zero flows. On October 28, the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75%–4%, with two members favoring a rate hike. The macro picture has not provided a clear dovish signal for high-volatility assets. So my view is that the options narrative will add short-term noise, but the real direction still needs to be confirmed by price action, spot trading volume, and subsequent fund-flow data.
How has the market reacted so far? When I checked Kraken, ETH was around $2,355—above the day’s open of $2,347, but still below the high of $2,384. The low was about $2,320. BTC was around $81,100 at the same time. ETH has not come close to $2,500 for now, and this rebound cannot be attributed to options settlement. I see $2,384 as the short-term confirmation level and $2,320 as the invalidation level. If ETH breaks below $2,320 and fails to recover it, any short-term bullish view should be withdrawn. If it holds above $2,384 on strong volume, then I’ll watch for spot buying to follow through. $2,500 is simply a more distant area to monitor, not an unconditional target.
If I were trading myself, I would sit this one out for now, with no directional position and 0% allocated. Only if ETH breaks above $2,384 and holds on a retest, while BTC stays above its intraday low, would I consider a small spot long using 2% of my total capital. Those two conditions are the entry triggers. The first target is $2,420; I’d reduce the position by half there. I’d hold the rest only if volume remains strong as ETH approaches $2,460; otherwise, I’d close it. I’d stop out if ETH falls back to $2,350 after entry. If ETH first loses $2,320 or BTC weakens at the same time, I’d immediately cancel the plan and close the position. If the conditions aren’t met, I’ll keep waiting, avoid high leverage, and won’t present an untriggered plan as a gain.
Sources: Binance Square trending list, Binance News, Deribit public API, Kraken, Farside, and the Federal Reserve’s October 28 statement. #109亿美元比特币期权周五到期 #ETH #BTC
This is only my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
