$10.9B in BTC options expire｜Spot price around $81,000｜Watch volatility, don’t bet on the settlement price
My stance is to guard against volatility first, then look for direction. The current hot topic on Binance Square is “#$10.9 billion in Bitcoin options expire Friday.” Binance News’s official account reports that options representing about 135,000 BTC on Deribit are set to expire on October 30 at 08:00 UTC, with a notional value of about $10.92 billion and a “max pain” price of $78,000. I also queried Deribit’s public API directly and filtered for BTC options expiring on 30OCT26. The results showed open interest of about 135,700 BTC, including roughly 89,000 BTC in calls and 46,800 BTC in puts. Using Kraken’s BTC price of about $80,984 at the time of the query, the notional value was about $10.99 billion. The two figures are in the same ballpark, but the data changes with prices and positions. The $10.9 billion figure should not be treated as a fixed amount of settlement capital, nor does it mean that all of these options will be sold on Friday.
Options expiries affect the market through adjustments to hedging positions and changes in liquidity around settlement—not because the “max pain” price will necessarily pull BTC back to $78,000. Market makers’ net hedging direction depends on the specific strike prices, the price before expiry, and the structure of their positions; a higher number of calls alone does not mean prices must rise. On the macro front, the Fed held rates at 3.75%–4% on October 28 in a 10–2 vote, with the two dissenters favoring a rate hike. With liquidity expectations and month-end options both in play, be especially careful not to mistake a brief sweep through a round-number level for confirmation of a trend. If Farside’s spot BTC fund table does not yet have complete data for the day, older net inflows cannot be used as a substitute for today’s buying.
The market reaction so far can be described through the order book: when I checked Kraken, BTC was around $80,984—above the day’s open of $80,801, but below the intraday high of $81,688. The intraday low was about $80,282. In other words, the price is still within the day’s range, and there is no evidence yet that the expiry event has determined the direction. I’m watching $80,280 as support, $81,690 as resistance, and the $78,000 options model level cited by Binance News. A decisive break below the intraday low would invalidate my cautiously bullish view; only a hold above the intraday high, followed by a successful retest, would lead me to shift from expecting choppy trading to a short-term bullish outlook. The $78,000 level is only a model reference, not a guaranteed target.
If I were trading this myself, I would currently stay out and wait for a direction, with a 0% position size. Only if BTC moves above $81,690 and holds that level on a retest would I consider a small spot long using 2% of my total capital. The entry requires both a breakout and confirmation on the retest. The first target would be $82,500, where I would sell half; I would hold the rest for $83,200. After entering, I would stop out if the price falls back below $81,200. If the price quickly reverses after the breakout, volume fails to follow through, or an unusually high-volume sell-off occurs before expiry, I would close the entire remaining position. If BTC first breaks below $80,280, I would not immediately reverse course and chase a short; I would wait for it to stabilize before reassessing. I would focus on spot trading and small positions, avoid high leverage, and never present a plan whose triggers have not been met as an executed trade.
Sources: Binance Square trending topics, Binance News, Deribit public options API, Kraken live quotes, and the Fed’s October 28 statement. #109亿美元比特币期权周五到期 #BTC
This is solely my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
My stance is to guard against volatility first, then look for direction. The current hot topic on Binance Square is “#$10.9 billion in Bitcoin options expire Friday.” Binance News’s official account reports that options representing about 135,000 BTC on Deribit are set to expire on October 30 at 08:00 UTC, with a notional value of about $10.92 billion and a “max pain” price of $78,000. I also queried Deribit’s public API directly and filtered for BTC options expiring on 30OCT26. The results showed open interest of about 135,700 BTC, including roughly 89,000 BTC in calls and 46,800 BTC in puts. Using Kraken’s BTC price of about $80,984 at the time of the query, the notional value was about $10.99 billion. The two figures are in the same ballpark, but the data changes with prices and positions. The $10.9 billion figure should not be treated as a fixed amount of settlement capital, nor does it mean that all of these options will be sold on Friday.
Options expiries affect the market through adjustments to hedging positions and changes in liquidity around settlement—not because the “max pain” price will necessarily pull BTC back to $78,000. Market makers’ net hedging direction depends on the specific strike prices, the price before expiry, and the structure of their positions; a higher number of calls alone does not mean prices must rise. On the macro front, the Fed held rates at 3.75%–4% on October 28 in a 10–2 vote, with the two dissenters favoring a rate hike. With liquidity expectations and month-end options both in play, be especially careful not to mistake a brief sweep through a round-number level for confirmation of a trend. If Farside’s spot BTC fund table does not yet have complete data for the day, older net inflows cannot be used as a substitute for today’s buying.
The market reaction so far can be described through the order book: when I checked Kraken, BTC was around $80,984—above the day’s open of $80,801, but below the intraday high of $81,688. The intraday low was about $80,282. In other words, the price is still within the day’s range, and there is no evidence yet that the expiry event has determined the direction. I’m watching $80,280 as support, $81,690 as resistance, and the $78,000 options model level cited by Binance News. A decisive break below the intraday low would invalidate my cautiously bullish view; only a hold above the intraday high, followed by a successful retest, would lead me to shift from expecting choppy trading to a short-term bullish outlook. The $78,000 level is only a model reference, not a guaranteed target.
If I were trading this myself, I would currently stay out and wait for a direction, with a 0% position size. Only if BTC moves above $81,690 and holds that level on a retest would I consider a small spot long using 2% of my total capital. The entry requires both a breakout and confirmation on the retest. The first target would be $82,500, where I would sell half; I would hold the rest for $83,200. After entering, I would stop out if the price falls back below $81,200. If the price quickly reverses after the breakout, volume fails to follow through, or an unusually high-volume sell-off occurs before expiry, I would close the entire remaining position. If BTC first breaks below $80,280, I would not immediately reverse course and chase a short; I would wait for it to stabilize before reassessing. I would focus on spot trading and small positions, avoid high leverage, and never present a plan whose triggers have not been met as an executed trade.
Sources: Binance Square trending topics, Binance News, Deribit public options API, Kraken live quotes, and the Fed’s October 28 statement. #109亿美元比特币期权周五到期 #BTC
This is solely my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
