Will third-quarter growth be pushed above the 3% threshold? Fed Chair Warsh’s view is that third-quarter GDP could come in above 3%. There is only one key figure in that statement: 3%. It is still qualified by “could”; it is not yet a finalized reported figure. If growth really does cross that threshold, the economy would still be on the expansionary side, leaving the recession narrative with one less piece of direct support. For markets, what changes first is the growth outlook, not any particular trading price; there is still a layer of verification between a verbal assessment and the final statistical figure.
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