#FOMC会议 $XAU $BNB 10October FOMC meeting (October 27–28)—key takeaways: The Fed stood pat, keeping the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%. This was its first pause since raising rates by 25 basis points in September.
- At the September meeting, Fed Chair Warsh raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, the first rate hike in three years; all 19 officials voted in favor.
- September CPI rose to 3.7% year over year, while core CPI was up 2.6%, still above the 2% target.
- Market expectations of an October pause surged to around 90%, from 36% a month earlier.
- Most officials said they were in no rush to raise rates consecutively; Vice Chair Jefferson, Bowman, and Waller all leaned toward waiting.
- Financial conditions have tightened by about 30 basis points since September, giving the Fed room to wait and see.
- Inflationary pressure mainly stems from supply-side factors such as tariffs, energy shocks (the Iran conflict), and AI-related price pressures, which are expected to gradually fade. Chart
- Two hawkish regional Fed presidents (Hammack and Logan) may dissent in favor of an October rate hike.
- The statement may borrow language from Vice Chair Jefferson, emphasizing “data dependence” without offering clear forward guidance.
- Warsh may acknowledge that financial market adjustments have brought some tightening, while maintaining a broadly hawkish stance. Chart
- Goldman Sachs expects a second and final rate hike in December, followed by a shift to a rate-cutting cycle.
- Huatai expects one more rate hike in December this year and two hikes next year.
- Market pricing implies about 21 basis points of rate hikes this year, with an approximately 80% probability of a December hike. Chart
Risk warning: If financial markets undergo a significant adjustment (for example, a stock market decline driven by concerns about the AI investment cycle, or tighter credit conditions), expectations for Fed rate hikes may be revised downward.
- At the September meeting, Fed Chair Warsh raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, the first rate hike in three years; all 19 officials voted in favor.
- September CPI rose to 3.7% year over year, while core CPI was up 2.6%, still above the 2% target.
- Market expectations of an October pause surged to around 90%, from 36% a month earlier.
- Most officials said they were in no rush to raise rates consecutively; Vice Chair Jefferson, Bowman, and Waller all leaned toward waiting.
- Financial conditions have tightened by about 30 basis points since September, giving the Fed room to wait and see.
- Inflationary pressure mainly stems from supply-side factors such as tariffs, energy shocks (the Iran conflict), and AI-related price pressures, which are expected to gradually fade. Chart
- Two hawkish regional Fed presidents (Hammack and Logan) may dissent in favor of an October rate hike.
- The statement may borrow language from Vice Chair Jefferson, emphasizing “data dependence” without offering clear forward guidance.
- Warsh may acknowledge that financial market adjustments have brought some tightening, while maintaining a broadly hawkish stance. Chart
- Goldman Sachs expects a second and final rate hike in December, followed by a shift to a rate-cutting cycle.
- Huatai expects one more rate hike in December this year and two hikes next year.
- Market pricing implies about 21 basis points of rate hikes this year, with an approximately 80% probability of a December hike. Chart
Risk warning: If financial markets undergo a significant adjustment (for example, a stock market decline driven by concerns about the AI investment cycle, or tighter credit conditions), expectations for Fed rate hikes may be revised downward.