This Friday at 4 p.m., $10.9 billion worth of Bitcoin options expire—about 135,000 BTC.
There are two numbers to watch. One is the max pain level: $78,000. If the price settles there, options buyers lose the most and market makers who sold the options come out best.
The other is the long-to-short ratio. Just over 30% are betting on a drop, while most are betting on a rise.
Bitcoin is now at $80,400, more than $2,000 above max pain. If all those bullish bets pay off, market makers will have to pay out, so pulling the price down before expiry is the easiest play for them.
My take: Bitcoin probably won’t have a smooth ride before Friday. Even if it climbs, it could easily get pulled back, and it’s more likely to chop around $80,000.
But once Friday’s 4 p.m. expiry passes, that overhanging options position will be cleared out. As long as $80,000 holds, the market will be lighter after expiry, making another push higher easier. #109亿美元比特币期权周五到期 $BTC
There are two numbers to watch. One is the max pain level: $78,000. If the price settles there, options buyers lose the most and market makers who sold the options come out best.
The other is the long-to-short ratio. Just over 30% are betting on a drop, while most are betting on a rise.
Bitcoin is now at $80,400, more than $2,000 above max pain. If all those bullish bets pay off, market makers will have to pay out, so pulling the price down before expiry is the easiest play for them.
My take: Bitcoin probably won’t have a smooth ride before Friday. Even if it climbs, it could easily get pulled back, and it’s more likely to chop around $80,000.
But once Friday’s 4 p.m. expiry passes, that overhanging options position will be cleared out. As long as $80,000 holds, the market will be lighter after expiry, making another push higher easier. #109亿美元比特币期权周五到期 $BTC
