This Friday at 16:00 Beijing time, about 135,000 BTC options will expire
With a notional value of about $10.92 billion
The put/call ratio is around 0.53, and max pain is near $78,000
Around $776 million in Ethereum options will also settle at the same time
Max pain is about $2,500
Don’t just focus on tomorrow morning’s 02:00 rate decision statement
The real double pressure is this: the rate decision night first twists the path, then on Friday the month’s largest options exposure gets unwound
The biggest exposure is concentrated around $95,000 calls
That’s still a long way from spot. The notional value of those paper longs looks scary, but the share that can actually be exercised isn’t high
The $78,000 max pain level isn’t a magnet either; it’s just the path of least resistance for market makers to hedge
My view is straightforward
Anyone chasing a one-way breakout above $81,000 over the next two days will get hit by both the rate decision wording and Friday’s Gamma pullback
More dangerous is the opposite: those who see $10.9 billion and declare that price is bound to plunge to $78,000 are also treating max pain as a directional signal
Between the rate decision and Friday’s settlement, $BTC is more likely to be repeatedly smoothed out by hedging flows within the broad $78,000–$82,000 range
If the policy path suddenly turns more hawkish, high-leverage perpetuals will be hit first—not those far-off $95,000 calls
If the path is neutral to dovish, don’t expect options notional alone to drive a major rally before Friday’s expiry
Check the hard numbers for yourself: at 02:00 Beijing time on October 29, watch the statement and press conference
At 16:00 on October 30, watch whether volatility contracts or expands again after this batch of roughly $10.9 billion in notional positions is unwound
$ETH ’s $776 million is a secondary tremor on the same day; Bitcoin is still the main event
Voting for the Top 100 closes tonight at 23:59
If you have a moment, go to my Plaza profile and tap the New Generation Creator post below my avatar
No need to reply after voting
$BTC $ETH
#109亿美元比特币期权周五到期 #FOMC会议 #BTC #ETH #Next-GenerationCreator
With a notional value of about $10.92 billion
The put/call ratio is around 0.53, and max pain is near $78,000
Around $776 million in Ethereum options will also settle at the same time
Max pain is about $2,500
Don’t just focus on tomorrow morning’s 02:00 rate decision statement
The real double pressure is this: the rate decision night first twists the path, then on Friday the month’s largest options exposure gets unwound
The biggest exposure is concentrated around $95,000 calls
That’s still a long way from spot. The notional value of those paper longs looks scary, but the share that can actually be exercised isn’t high
The $78,000 max pain level isn’t a magnet either; it’s just the path of least resistance for market makers to hedge
My view is straightforward
Anyone chasing a one-way breakout above $81,000 over the next two days will get hit by both the rate decision wording and Friday’s Gamma pullback
More dangerous is the opposite: those who see $10.9 billion and declare that price is bound to plunge to $78,000 are also treating max pain as a directional signal
Between the rate decision and Friday’s settlement, $BTC is more likely to be repeatedly smoothed out by hedging flows within the broad $78,000–$82,000 range
If the policy path suddenly turns more hawkish, high-leverage perpetuals will be hit first—not those far-off $95,000 calls
If the path is neutral to dovish, don’t expect options notional alone to drive a major rally before Friday’s expiry
Check the hard numbers for yourself: at 02:00 Beijing time on October 29, watch the statement and press conference
At 16:00 on October 30, watch whether volatility contracts or expands again after this batch of roughly $10.9 billion in notional positions is unwound
$ETH ’s $776 million is a secondary tremor on the same day; Bitcoin is still the main event
Voting for the Top 100 closes tonight at 23:59
If you have a moment, go to my Plaza profile and tap the New Generation Creator post below my avatar
No need to reply after voting
$BTC $ETH
#109亿美元比特币期权周五到期 #FOMC会议 #BTC #ETH #Next-GenerationCreator
