An eight-point economic cooperation list between the U.S. and Russia has surfaced. On the same day, WTI December futures rose 1.87%, trading at 101.77 at 19:43. Every item on the list is conditional on “after the conflict ends,” so it cannot determine today’s oil price.
According to the Financial Times and The New York Times, the U.S. side is led by special envoys Witkoff and Kushner, while the Russian side is represented by Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund. Ukraine and Europe were not directly involved. The list includes a joint offshore oil and gas venture on Sakhalin Island; resuming Russian oil sales to Europe via the Druzhba pipeline; Lukoil transferring some overseas assets to investors linked to the White House; Novatek taking part in liquefied natural gas projects in Alaska; supplying gas through the remaining Nord Stream pipeline; U.S. airlines resuming flights through Russian airspace; handing management of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to a U.S. entity; and easing sanctions on potash.
Eight points, and not one can get underway tomorrow.
A Xinhua feature published at 17:19 recounted the list. Four hours later, at 18:21, TASS quoted Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak: Russia is not negotiating with the U.S. about returning to oil projects.
Those two statements don’t conflict. The verb he denied was “negotiating,” and he was referring to oil projects.
The U.S. side’s own caveat is firmer: any economic agreement must be part of a comprehensive peace framework, and nothing has been finalized.
There’s a record of how the previous round ended. In 2006–2007, under pressure from environmental enforcement, the Sakhalin-2 project was forced to cede control to Gazprom. In 2022, Russia took control of Sakhalin-1 by decree, stripping ExxonMobil of its 30% stake.
Signing a list is one thing; getting people back is another.
Today’s driver of oil prices isn’t on the list. The Houthis say they struck Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery; Saudi Arabia has not confirmed this. The day before, Saudi officials said they had intercepted three missiles and four drones. This report is unconfirmed, but it explains the 1.87% rise better than a list that only takes effect “after the conflict ends.”
Gold hasn’t reacted to the list either. At 19:43, COMEX gold was at $4,059.4, down 0.37%. The U.S. Dollar Index stood at 102.36, nearly flat. The image shows tokenized gold XAUT, which is priced a dozen or so dollars below COMEX gold; they are not the same market.
The list says what could be gained in the future; oil and gold prices reflect what is scarce now. So the two prices can move in opposite directions at the same time without either one being wrong.
I haven’t found out when these eight points will become contracts. But the answer to what happened at Sakhalin twenty years ago is in the ownership-change announcement.
Looking at this #地缘政治 list, what will be implemented first: energy, or aviation and potash?
The above is compiled from public sources and represents personal analysis. It does not constitute investment advice.
According to the Financial Times and The New York Times, the U.S. side is led by special envoys Witkoff and Kushner, while the Russian side is represented by Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund. Ukraine and Europe were not directly involved. The list includes a joint offshore oil and gas venture on Sakhalin Island; resuming Russian oil sales to Europe via the Druzhba pipeline; Lukoil transferring some overseas assets to investors linked to the White House; Novatek taking part in liquefied natural gas projects in Alaska; supplying gas through the remaining Nord Stream pipeline; U.S. airlines resuming flights through Russian airspace; handing management of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to a U.S. entity; and easing sanctions on potash.
Eight points, and not one can get underway tomorrow.
A Xinhua feature published at 17:19 recounted the list. Four hours later, at 18:21, TASS quoted Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak: Russia is not negotiating with the U.S. about returning to oil projects.
Those two statements don’t conflict. The verb he denied was “negotiating,” and he was referring to oil projects.
The U.S. side’s own caveat is firmer: any economic agreement must be part of a comprehensive peace framework, and nothing has been finalized.
There’s a record of how the previous round ended. In 2006–2007, under pressure from environmental enforcement, the Sakhalin-2 project was forced to cede control to Gazprom. In 2022, Russia took control of Sakhalin-1 by decree, stripping ExxonMobil of its 30% stake.
Signing a list is one thing; getting people back is another.
Today’s driver of oil prices isn’t on the list. The Houthis say they struck Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery; Saudi Arabia has not confirmed this. The day before, Saudi officials said they had intercepted three missiles and four drones. This report is unconfirmed, but it explains the 1.87% rise better than a list that only takes effect “after the conflict ends.”
Gold hasn’t reacted to the list either. At 19:43, COMEX gold was at $4,059.4, down 0.37%. The U.S. Dollar Index stood at 102.36, nearly flat. The image shows tokenized gold XAUT, which is priced a dozen or so dollars below COMEX gold; they are not the same market.
The list says what could be gained in the future; oil and gold prices reflect what is scarce now. So the two prices can move in opposite directions at the same time without either one being wrong.
I haven’t found out when these eight points will become contracts. But the answer to what happened at Sakhalin twenty years ago is in the ownership-change announcement.
Looking at this #地缘政治 list, what will be implemented first: energy, or aviation and potash?
The above is compiled from public sources and represents personal analysis. It does not constitute investment advice.
