Price surged toward 81,800 during the day, then gave it all back. With only a few hours until the rate decision, I’m now more focused on whether the long/short ratio has really cooled off.
$BTC is trading around 80,500, nearly flat over 24 hours. It touched a high of 81,823 and plunged to a low of 79,890. In this morning’s sentiment post, open interest was still around 95,500 BTC and the account long/short ratio was 2.06. Open interest has now recovered to about 96,500, still well below yesterday’s peak of 98,200 but slightly higher than this morning. The real change is that the market-wide account long/short ratio has fallen to around 1.83, while the large-trader long/short ratio by position is about 1.77—the retail crowd’s long bias has eased considerably since this morning. Funding rates remain slightly positive, the taker buy/sell ratio has leaned toward selling over the last few 4-hour candles, and the Fear & Greed Index is still at 51, neutral—not fearful enough to call it a buying opportunity.
So I’m not going to chase this sideways action after the pullback. The long/short ratio has improved, but price failed to hold above 81,300 and gave back over a thousand points from its intraday high, suggesting that buying support isn’t solid. Until the rate decision is out, I’ll keep futures positions light and avoid opening new ones; I won’t chase spot either. $ETH can just follow BTC’s lead. To turn more bullish, price needs to first hold 80,800–81,000 on declining volume, then break above 81,300 on rising volume. On the downside, 79,890 has already been tested today; if 79,500 breaks, reduce positions first. The hard stop-loss remains at 79,220. The chart shows price over the past two days alongside open interest and the account and large-trader long/short ratios. Data is from public spot and futures exchange APIs.
$BTC is trading around 80,500, nearly flat over 24 hours. It touched a high of 81,823 and plunged to a low of 79,890. In this morning’s sentiment post, open interest was still around 95,500 BTC and the account long/short ratio was 2.06. Open interest has now recovered to about 96,500, still well below yesterday’s peak of 98,200 but slightly higher than this morning. The real change is that the market-wide account long/short ratio has fallen to around 1.83, while the large-trader long/short ratio by position is about 1.77—the retail crowd’s long bias has eased considerably since this morning. Funding rates remain slightly positive, the taker buy/sell ratio has leaned toward selling over the last few 4-hour candles, and the Fear & Greed Index is still at 51, neutral—not fearful enough to call it a buying opportunity.
So I’m not going to chase this sideways action after the pullback. The long/short ratio has improved, but price failed to hold above 81,300 and gave back over a thousand points from its intraday high, suggesting that buying support isn’t solid. Until the rate decision is out, I’ll keep futures positions light and avoid opening new ones; I won’t chase spot either. $ETH can just follow BTC’s lead. To turn more bullish, price needs to first hold 80,800–81,000 on declining volume, then break above 81,300 on rising volume. On the downside, 79,890 has already been tested today; if 79,500 breaks, reduce positions first. The hard stop-loss remains at 79,220. The chart shows price over the past two days alongside open interest and the account and large-trader long/short ratios. Data is from public spot and futures exchange APIs.
