THE FED DECIDES INTEREST RATES TODAY: HERE’S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
👀 At 3 p.m. Argentina time, just 6 days before the U.S. election
What is the Fed rate, and why should you keep an eye on it⁉️
🎯 It’s the cost of money in the U.S.: it determines how much it costs to borrow, from a mortgage to a business loan.
🎯 If the Fed raises it, borrowing becomes more expensive, the economy cools down, and inflation should fall. But stocks and crypto also become less attractive.
👉 It’s currently between 3.75% and 4%, following September’s increase.
What’s expected?
▪️ The market puts the odds of no change at around 90%.
▪️ A month ago, a rate hike in October seemed most likely. The weak jobs report and Warsh’s comments ruled it out.
👉 But all eyes are already on December: the market puts the odds of a rate hike then at 75%.
🧨 What will move the market isn’t the decision, but what Warsh says:
▪️ If he sounds more inclined not to raise rates because of the drop in employment, that would be positive for financial markets.
▪️ And tomorrow, the PCE inflation report comes out: if it’s high, it would reinforce the case for a December hike, which would be negative for financial markets.
📍 A pause today would give stocks and crypto some breathing room before the election. The key is the tone: if Warsh seems less interested in raising rates, that could trigger a rebound. $BTC $ETH $BNB
👀 At 3 p.m. Argentina time, just 6 days before the U.S. election
What is the Fed rate, and why should you keep an eye on it⁉️
🎯 It’s the cost of money in the U.S.: it determines how much it costs to borrow, from a mortgage to a business loan.
🎯 If the Fed raises it, borrowing becomes more expensive, the economy cools down, and inflation should fall. But stocks and crypto also become less attractive.
👉 It’s currently between 3.75% and 4%, following September’s increase.
What’s expected?
▪️ The market puts the odds of no change at around 90%.
▪️ A month ago, a rate hike in October seemed most likely. The weak jobs report and Warsh’s comments ruled it out.
👉 But all eyes are already on December: the market puts the odds of a rate hike then at 75%.
🧨 What will move the market isn’t the decision, but what Warsh says:
▪️ If he sounds more inclined not to raise rates because of the drop in employment, that would be positive for financial markets.
▪️ And tomorrow, the PCE inflation report comes out: if it’s high, it would reinforce the case for a December hike, which would be negative for financial markets.
📍 A pause today would give stocks and crypto some breathing room before the election. The key is the tone: if Warsh seems less interested in raising rates, that could trigger a rebound. $BTC $ETH $BNB
