#FOMC会议
$MINA
$DOGE
The Fed is expected to hold steady, but Warsh may send hawkish signals: Treasury bulls could be caught in a reversal!
At the October 28 policy meeting, rates are all but certain to remain at 3.75%–4.00%, with FedWatch putting the odds of no change at around 90%. The real wildcard isn’t the rate decision, but Warsh’s press conference.
Treasury bulls are now crowded into their positions. JPMorgan’s weekly survey shows net long positions at their highest level since early September. The 10-year yield has retreated to around 5% from an earlier-month high of 5.36%, its highest in more than two decades, as tactical bullish bets have piled up. Citi strategists put it bluntly: the biggest shift ahead of the FOMC is that the market has tactically turned long on Treasuries.
Warsh, meanwhile, leans hawkish. September CPI accelerated to 3.7%, PPI surged 6.3% year over year, and the probability of a December rate hike has been priced above 80%. Mitsubishi UFJ’s base-case scenario is a “hawkish pause,” with a 55% probability: Warsh won’t offer forward guidance, but if he fully acknowledges inflationary pressures, that will be read as a signal of further tightening. A Brandywine manager put it even more plainly: if Warsh is hawkish, “the yield curve will bear-flatten.”
A hold itself won’t hurt; what will hurt is if the “pause” is repriced as “the Fed isn’t done hiking yet.” Treasury bulls are betting on a tactical rebound, but Warsh has the next straw in his hands#FOMC会议 .
$MINA
$DOGE
The Fed is expected to hold steady, but Warsh may send hawkish signals: Treasury bulls could be caught in a reversal!
At the October 28 policy meeting, rates are all but certain to remain at 3.75%–4.00%, with FedWatch putting the odds of no change at around 90%. The real wildcard isn’t the rate decision, but Warsh’s press conference.
Treasury bulls are now crowded into their positions. JPMorgan’s weekly survey shows net long positions at their highest level since early September. The 10-year yield has retreated to around 5% from an earlier-month high of 5.36%, its highest in more than two decades, as tactical bullish bets have piled up. Citi strategists put it bluntly: the biggest shift ahead of the FOMC is that the market has tactically turned long on Treasuries.
Warsh, meanwhile, leans hawkish. September CPI accelerated to 3.7%, PPI surged 6.3% year over year, and the probability of a December rate hike has been priced above 80%. Mitsubishi UFJ’s base-case scenario is a “hawkish pause,” with a 55% probability: Warsh won’t offer forward guidance, but if he fully acknowledges inflationary pressures, that will be read as a signal of further tightening. A Brandywine manager put it even more plainly: if Warsh is hawkish, “the yield curve will bear-flatten.”
A hold itself won’t hurt; what will hurt is if the “pause” is repriced as “the Fed isn’t done hiking yet.” Treasury bulls are betting on a tactical rebound, but Warsh has the next straw in his hands#FOMC会议 .
