BTC surged to 81823 today, then slapped you right back down.
I've seen this move too many times. The area around 81800 is packed with stop-loss orders. The big players sweep them all with one bullish candle, then turn around and head back down. Price is now sitting at 80922, about $700 below where the stops were swept. OI hasn't fallen, which means the shorts aren't dead—but the longs haven't left either.
My read is that the market is still battling it out here. This isn't the time to jump in.
Why? The funding rate is 0.0079%, as flat as a millpond. In a market with a real directional move, the rate should be at least 0.02%. This number tells you the big money is waiting, not taking a position. ETH is in the same boat, sitting at 2348 with no clear lead in either direction—just swaying along with BTC.
Looking at the 4H structure, the candle at 81823 had a volume of 2093 BTC, twice that of the preceding few candles. Volume came in, but price couldn't hold—that's a volume-price divergence, not a healthy rally. The volume on the pullback candle shrank to 415, which suggests selling pressure isn't heavy either, but buying pressure is even weaker.
So there are two key levels today: hold above 81200, and another test of 81800 becomes possible; break below 80200, and the previous low's support is gone, opening up room below 79000.
I'm not chasing longs right now. I'll wait for the structure to confirm, funding to recover, and ETH to catch up with a move of its own before talking about an entry.
Before the market gives you an opportunity, it'll first tempt you into making a mistake. And the most expensive mistake is jumping in early when there's no structure.
Follow me for livestreams and SMC lessons every night at 21:00.
🌿 Zhao, keeping it real | Not financial advice
I've seen this move too many times. The area around 81800 is packed with stop-loss orders. The big players sweep them all with one bullish candle, then turn around and head back down. Price is now sitting at 80922, about $700 below where the stops were swept. OI hasn't fallen, which means the shorts aren't dead—but the longs haven't left either.
My read is that the market is still battling it out here. This isn't the time to jump in.
Why? The funding rate is 0.0079%, as flat as a millpond. In a market with a real directional move, the rate should be at least 0.02%. This number tells you the big money is waiting, not taking a position. ETH is in the same boat, sitting at 2348 with no clear lead in either direction—just swaying along with BTC.
Looking at the 4H structure, the candle at 81823 had a volume of 2093 BTC, twice that of the preceding few candles. Volume came in, but price couldn't hold—that's a volume-price divergence, not a healthy rally. The volume on the pullback candle shrank to 415, which suggests selling pressure isn't heavy either, but buying pressure is even weaker.
So there are two key levels today: hold above 81200, and another test of 81800 becomes possible; break below 80200, and the previous low's support is gone, opening up room below 79000.
I'm not chasing longs right now. I'll wait for the structure to confirm, funding to recover, and ETH to catch up with a move of its own before talking about an entry.
Before the market gives you an opportunity, it'll first tempt you into making a mistake. And the most expensive mistake is jumping in early when there's no structure.
Follow me for livestreams and SMC lessons every night at 21:00.
🌿 Zhao, keeping it real | Not financial advice