135,000 $BTC options expire this Friday (October 30) at 16:00 Beijing time on Deribit, with a notional value of $10.92 billion and a put/call ratio of 0.53; at the same time, $ETH options have a notional value of $776 million and a ratio of 0.77. In both cases, put contracts amount to less than half the call contracts, so positioning is skewed bullish. A figure as large as $10.92 billion sounds like selling pressure, but it actually points in the opposite direction.
The real thing to watch is max pain: $78,000 for BTC and $2,500 for ETH. If prices are near those levels at expiry, market makers’ hedging flows could amplify volatility; if they’re far away, Friday will just be another settlement.
The report doesn’t give current prices, so I can’t tell whether these two max-pain levels are above or below spot. Changes in open interest before expiry are more worth watching than notional value.
#比特币期权 #以太坊期权 #Max Pain
The real thing to watch is max pain: $78,000 for BTC and $2,500 for ETH. If prices are near those levels at expiry, market makers’ hedging flows could amplify volatility; if they’re far away, Friday will just be another settlement.
The report doesn’t give current prices, so I can’t tell whether these two max-pain levels are above or below spot. Changes in open interest before expiry are more worth watching than notional value.
#比特币期权 #以太坊期权 #Max Pain