Here's my thesis: the upper wick at 2387.28 was distribution by the big players, not a shakeout.
Evidence one: large traders' long positions have fallen for six consecutive periods, from 63.80% to 63.36%.
Evidence two: the upper wick was 26 points; four hours later, $ETH retreated to 2351.25.
Evidence three: the funding rate is 0.0067%, and longs aren't even willing to pay the overnight funding fee.
Verdict: thesis holds. That doesn't mean you should short.
The downside target at 2312.42 is only 1.65% away, barely a 1:1 risk-reward ratio.
The stop would need to go above 2387.28—that's where the thesis is invalidated.
For an upside move, price needs to reclaim today's high; it's still stuck below the 20-hour moving average.
Neither side offers much room, so I'm sitting this one out.
(Not investment advice. You are responsible for your own profits and losses.)
Evidence one: large traders' long positions have fallen for six consecutive periods, from 63.80% to 63.36%.
Evidence two: the upper wick was 26 points; four hours later, $ETH retreated to 2351.25.
Evidence three: the funding rate is 0.0067%, and longs aren't even willing to pay the overnight funding fee.
Verdict: thesis holds. That doesn't mean you should short.
The downside target at 2312.42 is only 1.65% away, barely a 1:1 risk-reward ratio.
The stop would need to go above 2387.28—that's where the thesis is invalidated.
For an upside move, price needs to reclaim today's high; it's still stuck below the 20-hour moving average.
Neither side offers much room, so I'm sitting this one out.
(Not investment advice. You are responsible for your own profits and losses.)
