Does a rate pause automatically mean good news for crypto?
At this Fed meeting, I’m more focused on whether it leaves the door open to another rate hike in December.
The rate decision will be announced at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on October 29, followed by a press conference at 2:30 a.m. The prevailing expectation is that rates will remain unchanged. But remember, the Fed just raised rates by 25 basis points in September. Pausing once doesn’t mean it’s turning dovish.
The data hasn’t exactly been reassuring either: September CPI rose 3.7% year over year, while core PCE rose 3.0% year over year in August. Inflationary pressures remain.
More importantly, the initial Q3 GDP estimate and September PCE data are due at 8:30 p.m. on the 29th. The market will first react to the Fed’s tone overnight, then see in the evening whether the data backs it up.
My expectation: a pause in rate hikes, but with cautious wording. If inflation comes in hotter than expected that evening, BTC could give back its gains even if it rises at first. If inflation cools and growth remains steady, a rebound would have stronger support.
So this time, I won’t judge the direction based only on the first candlestick overnight.
#FOMC会议
At this Fed meeting, I’m more focused on whether it leaves the door open to another rate hike in December.
The rate decision will be announced at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on October 29, followed by a press conference at 2:30 a.m. The prevailing expectation is that rates will remain unchanged. But remember, the Fed just raised rates by 25 basis points in September. Pausing once doesn’t mean it’s turning dovish.
The data hasn’t exactly been reassuring either: September CPI rose 3.7% year over year, while core PCE rose 3.0% year over year in August. Inflationary pressures remain.
More importantly, the initial Q3 GDP estimate and September PCE data are due at 8:30 p.m. on the 29th. The market will first react to the Fed’s tone overnight, then see in the evening whether the data backs it up.
My expectation: a pause in rate hikes, but with cautious wording. If inflation comes in hotter than expected that evening, BTC could give back its gains even if it rises at first. If inflation cools and growth remains steady, a rebound would have stronger support.
So this time, I won’t judge the direction based only on the first candlestick overnight.
#FOMC会议
