Fed today, PCE tomorrow, options on Friday: what's on the crypto calendar this week
Three events in three days, and each one can move price on its own.
Today, 18:00 GMT: the Fed decision. The target range is 3.75% to 4.00% after September's 25 basis point hike, and futures markets have priced roughly a 90% chance of no change. With a hold expected, traders are listening for one thing in Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 18:30 GMT: any hint of another hike in December. September CPI came in at 3.7% year on year, up from 3.4% in August, so that question is a fair one.
Tomorrow, 12:30 GMT: US Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure. A hot number can undo whatever mood the Fed sets tonight.
Friday, 08:00 GMT: monthly options expiry on Deribit. NodeWitness counted about 135,500 BTC options, about $10.8 billion in notional value, expiring that morning. Max pain sits at $78,000, but the payout curve is almost flat from $75,000 to $81,000, so I wouldn't treat it as a price magnet. The largest strike is the $95,000 call.
Where the market stands going in: $BTC is around $81,082 on Binance spot, up about 1.6% in 24 hours, and $ETH is around $2,361, up about 2%. Fund flows were split on Monday, with about $110 million into US spot bitcoin ETFs and about $88.6 million out of ether ETFs, according to Farside data cited by Bitget.
One small practical note: Binance ran scheduled wallet maintenance on the Ethereum network this morning at 06:00 UTC. ETH network deposits and withdrawals were paused from 05:55 UTC for about an hour, and trading was not affected. If a transfer looked slow early today, that's likely why.
My approach this week is simple: lower leverage, and let the dust settle after each event before reading too much into a move.
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
Three events in three days, and each one can move price on its own.
Today, 18:00 GMT: the Fed decision. The target range is 3.75% to 4.00% after September's 25 basis point hike, and futures markets have priced roughly a 90% chance of no change. With a hold expected, traders are listening for one thing in Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 18:30 GMT: any hint of another hike in December. September CPI came in at 3.7% year on year, up from 3.4% in August, so that question is a fair one.
Tomorrow, 12:30 GMT: US Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure. A hot number can undo whatever mood the Fed sets tonight.
Friday, 08:00 GMT: monthly options expiry on Deribit. NodeWitness counted about 135,500 BTC options, about $10.8 billion in notional value, expiring that morning. Max pain sits at $78,000, but the payout curve is almost flat from $75,000 to $81,000, so I wouldn't treat it as a price magnet. The largest strike is the $95,000 call.
Where the market stands going in: $BTC is around $81,082 on Binance spot, up about 1.6% in 24 hours, and $ETH is around $2,361, up about 2%. Fund flows were split on Monday, with about $110 million into US spot bitcoin ETFs and about $88.6 million out of ether ETFs, according to Farside data cited by Bitget.
One small practical note: Binance ran scheduled wallet maintenance on the Ethereum network this morning at 06:00 UTC. ETH network deposits and withdrawals were paused from 05:55 UTC for about an hour, and trading was not affected. If a transfer looked slow early today, that's likely why.
My approach this week is simple: lower leverage, and let the dust settle after each event before reading too much into a move.
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
