A rate hold tonight is already priced in. Are investors starting to bet on a rebound?
At 2 a.m. tonight, the Fed will announce its September rate decision, followed by a press conference at 2:30 a.m.
The market is currently pricing in a greater than 90% chance that rates will remain unchanged.
AI buying has already begun, as the market bets that policy won’t turn out worse than expected.
Yesterday, U.S. AI stocks WDC rose 6.95%, Marvell gained 4.19%, and Micron climbed 2.77%—all outperforming the Nasdaq’s 1.18% gain. Semiconductor stocks have risen for three consecutive trading days.
Strengthening prices don’t mean institutions have fully returned. Goldman Sachs data show that its prime brokerage clients sold about $20 billion worth of tech stocks over the past two weeks.
The entire market traded 16.1 billion shares last night, still below the 20-day average of 17.18 billion. The evidence so far points more to buyers cautiously testing the waters and risk appetite recovering than to “institutions collectively buying the dip.”
The rate pause has been priced in ahead of time; the rebound will need a new catalyst to continue.
BTC is also still in a short-term recovery phase. The 82k level above remains the fiercest battleground between bulls and bears. If BTC can’t hold above 82k, choppy bottom-testing is likely to be the main theme heading into the month-end transition.
In early U.S. trading today, KORU, one of the standout names in the semiconductor rebound, broke through the resistance around 12.5 and moved back above 13. But this should be considered in light of the major positive news that SK hynix confirmed a dividend, with annual returns of around 100 trillion won.
#SK海力士拟追加约450亿美元股东回报 #FOMC会议
At 2 a.m. tonight, the Fed will announce its September rate decision, followed by a press conference at 2:30 a.m.
The market is currently pricing in a greater than 90% chance that rates will remain unchanged.
AI buying has already begun, as the market bets that policy won’t turn out worse than expected.
Yesterday, U.S. AI stocks WDC rose 6.95%, Marvell gained 4.19%, and Micron climbed 2.77%—all outperforming the Nasdaq’s 1.18% gain. Semiconductor stocks have risen for three consecutive trading days.
Strengthening prices don’t mean institutions have fully returned. Goldman Sachs data show that its prime brokerage clients sold about $20 billion worth of tech stocks over the past two weeks.
The entire market traded 16.1 billion shares last night, still below the 20-day average of 17.18 billion. The evidence so far points more to buyers cautiously testing the waters and risk appetite recovering than to “institutions collectively buying the dip.”
The rate pause has been priced in ahead of time; the rebound will need a new catalyst to continue.
BTC is also still in a short-term recovery phase. The 82k level above remains the fiercest battleground between bulls and bears. If BTC can’t hold above 82k, choppy bottom-testing is likely to be the main theme heading into the month-end transition.
In early U.S. trading today, KORU, one of the standout names in the semiconductor rebound, broke through the resistance around 12.5 and moved back above 13. But this should be considered in light of the major positive news that SK hynix confirmed a dividend, with annual returns of around 100 trillion won.
#SK海力士拟追加约450亿美元股东回报 #FOMC会议
