To the New People of the New World ~ “The Eve of the Decision”
At 2 a.m. Beijing time on October 29, the Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision. Half an hour later, Chair Warsh will hold a press conference.
The market seems to have already given its answer.
According to an X news summary, markets are pricing in roughly a 90% chance that rates will remain unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% (to be verified). When the outcome is almost fully priced in, the real variable is no longer the decision itself.
It’s the wording.
Rates staying put doesn’t mean the direction stays put. A phrase like “remain patient” or “watch inflation” could prompt very different reactions from long-term Treasuries and risk assets.
The data is sending mixed signals, too.
According to the summary, durable goods orders rose 1.8% month over month in September, driven mainly by civilian aircraft. Excluding transportation, orders rose just 0.5%; core capital goods orders also rose 0.5%, below the 0.7% forecast (to be verified against the original U.S. Census Bureau release).
The headline looks strong; the underlying picture is subdued.
Whether businesses are truly expanding investment matters more than a single headline figure.
On the liquidity front, the U.S. Treasury completed a $6 billion buyback of 20- to 30-year Treasury bonds on October 27. The crypto community has interpreted this as bullish for BTC.
That’s an opinion, not a causal link.
The buyback improves liquidity in long-term Treasuries. Whether that carries over to risk assets depends on where the money flows next—not on what a tweet says.
That same night, Alphabet and Microsoft will also report earnings.
The Fed’s wording and AI capital spending will come into focus one after the other over the course of a few hours.
What determines the outcome isn’t which headline is louder, but which variable truly changes the cost and direction of capital.
Before the decision, the best position is a clear one.
The above is for informational and opinion-sharing purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
A 90% bet seems all but sure,
Yet one word may reveal what’s in store.
Long bonds and short bills hold their breath;
When the tide comes in, we’ll see how high it crests.
— Mingdao
At 2 a.m. Beijing time on October 29, the Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision. Half an hour later, Chair Warsh will hold a press conference.
The market seems to have already given its answer.
According to an X news summary, markets are pricing in roughly a 90% chance that rates will remain unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% (to be verified). When the outcome is almost fully priced in, the real variable is no longer the decision itself.
It’s the wording.
Rates staying put doesn’t mean the direction stays put. A phrase like “remain patient” or “watch inflation” could prompt very different reactions from long-term Treasuries and risk assets.
The data is sending mixed signals, too.
According to the summary, durable goods orders rose 1.8% month over month in September, driven mainly by civilian aircraft. Excluding transportation, orders rose just 0.5%; core capital goods orders also rose 0.5%, below the 0.7% forecast (to be verified against the original U.S. Census Bureau release).
The headline looks strong; the underlying picture is subdued.
Whether businesses are truly expanding investment matters more than a single headline figure.
On the liquidity front, the U.S. Treasury completed a $6 billion buyback of 20- to 30-year Treasury bonds on October 27. The crypto community has interpreted this as bullish for BTC.
That’s an opinion, not a causal link.
The buyback improves liquidity in long-term Treasuries. Whether that carries over to risk assets depends on where the money flows next—not on what a tweet says.
That same night, Alphabet and Microsoft will also report earnings.
The Fed’s wording and AI capital spending will come into focus one after the other over the course of a few hours.
What determines the outcome isn’t which headline is louder, but which variable truly changes the cost and direction of capital.
Before the decision, the best position is a clear one.
The above is for informational and opinion-sharing purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
A 90% bet seems all but sure,
Yet one word may reveal what’s in store.
Long bonds and short bills hold their breath;
When the tide comes in, we’ll see how high it crests.
— Mingdao