The daytime rebound has pushed $BTC back toward 81,000; the current price is around 81,050, with the day's low and high at 79,506–81,300, up roughly 1.5%. The price action looks lively, but leveraged positions are actually more crowded on both sides.
For liquidations, I estimated the levels using publicly available changes in Binance USDⓈ-M open interest and common leverage tiers; this isn't an off-the-shelf exchange heatmap. The nearest dense short-liquidation zone above is 81,400–81,800, followed by a heavier cluster at 83,300–83,900, with another farther up at 86,900–87,600. Below, the first long-liquidation zone to watch is 79,400–78,900, followed by 78,300–78,500, with the biggest cluster around 76,700. The current price is just below the day's high, about 300–400 points from the first short-liquidation zone above and about 1,500–2,000 points from the first long-liquidation zone below, so the upper zone is closer.
As for whales and large traders: the large-trader long/short position ratio has fallen from about 1.95 a day ago to around 1.81 now, while long positions still account for roughly 64%. The overall account long/short ratio has dropped from about 2.35 to 1.98. Retail bullish sentiment has eased, but the overall market still leans long. Open interest in futures has slipped from yesterday's high of about 96,700 contracts to around 96,200 now, indicating a slight reduction in leverage rather than aggressive additions. The average taker buy/sell ratio over the past day is around 0.95, indicating slightly more selling; over the past six hours, buying volume has edged past selling, with an average ratio of about 1.05, so short-term flows are mixed. $ETH is around 2,358 and moving in roughly the same rhythm as Bitcoin, so I won't give it a separate directional call.
So my take on this move is straightforward: in the short term, price is more likely to test the 81,400–81,800 short-liquidation zone above, but I wouldn't chase longs ahead of the rate decision. If volume picks up, price holds above 81,300, and then breaks through 81,800, we can talk about following the move after that layer of shorts has been liquidated. If price retreats after a spike and falls below 79,500, the long liquidations at 79,400–78,900 and then around 78,300 will be in focus. Reduce leverage on futures first; the key support remains 79,200. I'll keep holding spot and stay cautious with futures leverage, then reassess after the decision.
Data is from Binance spot and USDⓈ-M futures open interest, as well as /futures/data large-trader long/short position ratios, account long/short ratios, and taker buy/sell volume, as of around 3:50 p.m. Beijing time today.
For liquidations, I estimated the levels using publicly available changes in Binance USDⓈ-M open interest and common leverage tiers; this isn't an off-the-shelf exchange heatmap. The nearest dense short-liquidation zone above is 81,400–81,800, followed by a heavier cluster at 83,300–83,900, with another farther up at 86,900–87,600. Below, the first long-liquidation zone to watch is 79,400–78,900, followed by 78,300–78,500, with the biggest cluster around 76,700. The current price is just below the day's high, about 300–400 points from the first short-liquidation zone above and about 1,500–2,000 points from the first long-liquidation zone below, so the upper zone is closer.
As for whales and large traders: the large-trader long/short position ratio has fallen from about 1.95 a day ago to around 1.81 now, while long positions still account for roughly 64%. The overall account long/short ratio has dropped from about 2.35 to 1.98. Retail bullish sentiment has eased, but the overall market still leans long. Open interest in futures has slipped from yesterday's high of about 96,700 contracts to around 96,200 now, indicating a slight reduction in leverage rather than aggressive additions. The average taker buy/sell ratio over the past day is around 0.95, indicating slightly more selling; over the past six hours, buying volume has edged past selling, with an average ratio of about 1.05, so short-term flows are mixed. $ETH is around 2,358 and moving in roughly the same rhythm as Bitcoin, so I won't give it a separate directional call.
So my take on this move is straightforward: in the short term, price is more likely to test the 81,400–81,800 short-liquidation zone above, but I wouldn't chase longs ahead of the rate decision. If volume picks up, price holds above 81,300, and then breaks through 81,800, we can talk about following the move after that layer of shorts has been liquidated. If price retreats after a spike and falls below 79,500, the long liquidations at 79,400–78,900 and then around 78,300 will be in focus. Reduce leverage on futures first; the key support remains 79,200. I'll keep holding spot and stay cautious with futures leverage, then reassess after the decision.
Data is from Binance spot and USDⓈ-M futures open interest, as well as /futures/data large-trader long/short position ratios, account long/short ratios, and taker buy/sell volume, as of around 3:50 p.m. Beijing time today.
