FOMC Preview: Choppy Trading Around the $BTC 8 Ten-Thousand Mark—How to Use Right-Side Thinking to Navigate Macro Uncertainty
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Everyone, the Fed’s FOMC decision is coming at 2 a.m. tonight. With BTC currently around 80,800, here’s a quick look at how I’m thinking about the market.

From the right-side chart perspective, BTC has found support several times in the 79,178–79,500 area, but each rebound has peaked lower than the last. It’s still too early to say whether this is a typical continuation of the downtrend or a basing consolidation. 82,000 is the key dividing line: only a move above it would put a trend reversal in play; otherwise, the market remains weak and range-bound.

Expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady at this meeting are already fully priced in, so the real risk lies in “what they say.” If Warsh stresses at the press conference that inflation remains stubborn, paving the way for a rate hike in December, a stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields would weigh on BTC’s valuation. Conversely, if the language is more dovish, risk assets could get a brief reprieve.

My principle: when trading on events, wait for confirmation—don’t make predictions.

Hawkish: If BTC falls below 79,000, don’t buy the dip. Wait for signs of stabilization or a right-side shorting opportunity.
Neutral/dovish: If BTC breaks above 81,500–82,000 on rising volume, go long with the trend once the breakout is confirmed, targeting 83,000.

Trading isn’t about who predicts most accurately; it’s about who can last longest amid uncertainty. With a major event like the FOMC, technical levels can be blown through in an instant by the news. Rather than placing a heavy bet before the data comes out, it’s better to wait for the market to digest the news and form a clear right-side structure before following the move. I’ll probably wait until after 3 a.m. to check the charts tonight. Let the dust settle—safety first. #FOMC会议