Don’t just bet on whether rates will rise tonight at the FOMC
The market was already pricing in a low chance of a rate hike. What many people are really watching is whether the Fed will sound tougher than expected. I’m more focused on the statement’s wording, whether there are any surprise signals, and what Warsh says about December after the meeting.
My take: tonight looks more like a confirmation of a “pause.” The real trading will be about the path to December and shifts in risk appetite. If oil prices and Treasury yields both tighten, don’t expect crypto to surge just because the Fed doesn’t hike. Once the decision is out, first see whether volatility settles down before chasing shorts or longs—the post-meeting mood can be upended by a single remark.
$BTC $ETH
The market was already pricing in a low chance of a rate hike. What many people are really watching is whether the Fed will sound tougher than expected. I’m more focused on the statement’s wording, whether there are any surprise signals, and what Warsh says about December after the meeting.
My take: tonight looks more like a confirmation of a “pause.” The real trading will be about the path to December and shifts in risk appetite. If oil prices and Treasury yields both tighten, don’t expect crypto to surge just because the Fed doesn’t hike. Once the decision is out, first see whether volatility settles down before chasing shorts or longs—the post-meeting mood can be upended by a single remark.
$BTC $ETH