#谷歌财报能否守住基本盘 Google (Alphabet) Q3 Earnings Preview: Core Business Expected to Hold Steady, but AI Spending Is a Key Variable (as of October 28, 2026)
Alphabet will report its third-quarter 2026 earnings after the market closes on October 28, U.S. Eastern Time. The market expects revenue of about $127.8 billion (+25% year over year) and adjusted EPS of about $3. The key questions are whether its search advertising business remains resilient and whether it can balance cloud growth with capital spending.
Core business (search + advertising) remains resilient
Advertising still accounts for about 75% of revenue. Q2 results showed search revenue up 17% year over year, YouTube advertising up 13%, and Google Services up 15% overall. AI is improving the efficiency of ad targeting, while demand in the retail and financial services verticals remains solid. Although the market is concerned that AI assistants such as ChatGPT could divert traffic from search, current evidence suggests that searches with commercial intent have not been significantly affected. Advertising growth of around 12–15% is expected in Q3, which should continue to provide stable support for cash flow and profits.
Growth engine: cloud business accelerates
Google Cloud is the biggest bright spot. Q2 revenue was $24.8 billion (+82%), its operating margin rose to 35.6%, and its backlog reached $514 billion. The market expects Q3 growth of more than 90% (some investment banks forecast 100%, with revenue of around $29–30 billion), driven by enterprise AI infrastructure and solutions. Sales of Google’s in-house TPU chips are also beginning to contribute. Cloud has become the main contributor to nominal revenue growth, surpassing the incremental contribution from search.
Risk factor: high CapEx and cash flow pressure
Q2 capital expenditure was $44.9 billion, double the year-earlier level, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time. The full-year guidance was raised to $195–205 billion, and spending could increase substantially again in 2027. CEO Pichai acknowledged that the cloud business is diverting some near-term computing capacity and revenue to support frontier AI research. If guidance is raised again or backlog conversion is slower than expected, this could weigh on near-term valuation and margins.
Overall assessment
The core search advertising business is likely to hold steady, while cloud could exceed expectations and emerge as a new pillar. Although AI investment is a near-term drag on cash flow, it could strengthen competitive advantages over the long term. Strong cloud growth and backlog conversion, together with manageable CapEx guidance, would support the stock; if returns on investment remain unclear, recent volatility could continue. Investors should pay close attention to details from the earnings call. Invest at your own risk.
Alphabet will report its third-quarter 2026 earnings after the market closes on October 28, U.S. Eastern Time. The market expects revenue of about $127.8 billion (+25% year over year) and adjusted EPS of about $3. The key questions are whether its search advertising business remains resilient and whether it can balance cloud growth with capital spending.
Core business (search + advertising) remains resilient
Advertising still accounts for about 75% of revenue. Q2 results showed search revenue up 17% year over year, YouTube advertising up 13%, and Google Services up 15% overall. AI is improving the efficiency of ad targeting, while demand in the retail and financial services verticals remains solid. Although the market is concerned that AI assistants such as ChatGPT could divert traffic from search, current evidence suggests that searches with commercial intent have not been significantly affected. Advertising growth of around 12–15% is expected in Q3, which should continue to provide stable support for cash flow and profits.
Growth engine: cloud business accelerates
Google Cloud is the biggest bright spot. Q2 revenue was $24.8 billion (+82%), its operating margin rose to 35.6%, and its backlog reached $514 billion. The market expects Q3 growth of more than 90% (some investment banks forecast 100%, with revenue of around $29–30 billion), driven by enterprise AI infrastructure and solutions. Sales of Google’s in-house TPU chips are also beginning to contribute. Cloud has become the main contributor to nominal revenue growth, surpassing the incremental contribution from search.
Risk factor: high CapEx and cash flow pressure
Q2 capital expenditure was $44.9 billion, double the year-earlier level, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time. The full-year guidance was raised to $195–205 billion, and spending could increase substantially again in 2027. CEO Pichai acknowledged that the cloud business is diverting some near-term computing capacity and revenue to support frontier AI research. If guidance is raised again or backlog conversion is slower than expected, this could weigh on near-term valuation and margins.
Overall assessment
The core search advertising business is likely to hold steady, while cloud could exceed expectations and emerge as a new pillar. Although AI investment is a near-term drag on cash flow, it could strengthen competitive advantages over the long term. Strong cloud growth and backlog conversion, together with manageable CapEx guidance, would support the stock; if returns on investment remain unclear, recent volatility could continue. Investors should pay close attention to details from the earnings call. Invest at your own risk.