The Fed will most likely stand pat early Thursday morning, but I wouldn’t use that as a reason to go long.
The market is currently pricing in a greater than 90% chance of rates holding at 3.75%–4.00%. The real question is whether anyone dissents and what the chair says about December. CME pricing still leaves room for another hike, and many people are already betting on one in December. If the decision itself holds no surprises, the market is more likely to see a brief “relief” bounce once the uncertainty is out of the way, then focus on a few lines of wording in the statement.
As for crypto, $BTC spot is around $81,000, up less than 2% in 24 hours. Open interest in futures is hovering around 95,000–96,000 BTC. The market-wide long-to-short account ratio has eased from 2.08 early in the session to 1.98, while the large-trader long-to-short position ratio has also fallen from nearly 2 to around 1.81. The taker buy/sell ratio has remained tilted toward selling over the past few four-hour periods. The Fear and Greed Index is at 51—neither fearful nor euphoric. In other words, leveraged longs haven’t fully cleared out, but no one dares to go all in ahead of the rate decision either.
So my plan for tonight, until the decision is out, is simple: no new futures positions, and no chasing this spot-market bounce either. I’m keeping two levels in mind: only consider following the move if price holds above 81,300 on strong volume; if it falls below 79,500, reduce leverage first. The key support remains 79,220. If the statement sounds more hawkish than expected, prioritize protecting against a move lower. If it’s dovish and price also breaks above 81,300 on strong volume, then I’ll consider adding back.
Data is from Binance spot daily candles, futures open interest and long/short ratio endpoints, as well as publicly available rate-decision pricing.
The market is currently pricing in a greater than 90% chance of rates holding at 3.75%–4.00%. The real question is whether anyone dissents and what the chair says about December. CME pricing still leaves room for another hike, and many people are already betting on one in December. If the decision itself holds no surprises, the market is more likely to see a brief “relief” bounce once the uncertainty is out of the way, then focus on a few lines of wording in the statement.
As for crypto, $BTC spot is around $81,000, up less than 2% in 24 hours. Open interest in futures is hovering around 95,000–96,000 BTC. The market-wide long-to-short account ratio has eased from 2.08 early in the session to 1.98, while the large-trader long-to-short position ratio has also fallen from nearly 2 to around 1.81. The taker buy/sell ratio has remained tilted toward selling over the past few four-hour periods. The Fear and Greed Index is at 51—neither fearful nor euphoric. In other words, leveraged longs haven’t fully cleared out, but no one dares to go all in ahead of the rate decision either.
So my plan for tonight, until the decision is out, is simple: no new futures positions, and no chasing this spot-market bounce either. I’m keeping two levels in mind: only consider following the move if price holds above 81,300 on strong volume; if it falls below 79,500, reduce leverage first. The key support remains 79,220. If the statement sounds more hawkish than expected, prioritize protecting against a move lower. If it’s dovish and price also breaks above 81,300 on strong volume, then I’ll consider adding back.
Data is from Binance spot daily candles, futures open interest and long/short ratio endpoints, as well as publicly available rate-decision pricing.
