#FOMC会议 At this FOMC meeting (October 27–28), markets overwhelmingly expect interest rates to remain unchanged, with the target range holding at 3.75%–4.00%. Tools such as CME FedWatch, Polymarket, and Kalshi put the odds of no change at around 90%–96%, while the probability of a rate hike is only about 4%–10%. This is the first meeting since the 25-basis-point rate hike in September, and economist surveys (including Reuters) also show an almost unanimous expectation of a pause. 
Key things to watch at this meeting:
• There will be no new dot plot or economic projections, making Chair Kevin Warsh’s wording at the press conference the real wildcard.
• Markets are watching for any clear signal that rates could rise in December, what he says about inflation (September CPI was about 3.7%) and the labor market, and whether he mentions financial conditions or AI-related volatility.
• Expectations for a December hike remain high (around 70%–90%). This meeting is more likely to confirm a “delay” than an “end” to the rate-hiking cycle.
Impact on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH):
BTC is currently hovering near $80,000 (with a recent low of about $79,000), while ETH is consolidating in the $2,300–$2,350 range. A hold is already fully priced in, so a hold alone is likely to have a limited impact on prices. The tone will be the real driver:
• A neutral or slightly dovish tone (no stronger signal of a December hike, with an emphasis on data dependence) could prompt a short-term rebound in risk appetite. BTC could test resistance above $82,000–$83,000, while ETH’s focus will be on whether it can hold its ground and challenge $2,370–$2,400. ETF flows and leveraged-liquidation pressures have been cautious recently, but a confirmed hold could reduce some uncertainty.
• A hawkish tone (clearly signaling that a December hike is likely and that inflation remains stubborn) could strengthen the dollar and Treasury yields, putting pressure on risk assets. BTC could retest support at $78,000–$79,000, while for ETH, watch whether key support near $2,280 holds; if it breaks, the risk of a further drop toward $2,200 increases.
• Additional context: Tech giants’ earnings, PCE data, and sentiment related to the midterm elections follow soon after the meeting, and the combination of macro factors could amplify volatility. The high-yield environment (with 10-year Treasury yields still near 5%) continues to weigh on non-yielding assets such as BTC and ETH, though in the short term, sentiment and position adjustments are likely to matter more.
Key things to watch at this meeting:
• There will be no new dot plot or economic projections, making Chair Kevin Warsh’s wording at the press conference the real wildcard.
• Markets are watching for any clear signal that rates could rise in December, what he says about inflation (September CPI was about 3.7%) and the labor market, and whether he mentions financial conditions or AI-related volatility.
• Expectations for a December hike remain high (around 70%–90%). This meeting is more likely to confirm a “delay” than an “end” to the rate-hiking cycle.
Impact on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH):
BTC is currently hovering near $80,000 (with a recent low of about $79,000), while ETH is consolidating in the $2,300–$2,350 range. A hold is already fully priced in, so a hold alone is likely to have a limited impact on prices. The tone will be the real driver:
• A neutral or slightly dovish tone (no stronger signal of a December hike, with an emphasis on data dependence) could prompt a short-term rebound in risk appetite. BTC could test resistance above $82,000–$83,000, while ETH’s focus will be on whether it can hold its ground and challenge $2,370–$2,400. ETF flows and leveraged-liquidation pressures have been cautious recently, but a confirmed hold could reduce some uncertainty.
• A hawkish tone (clearly signaling that a December hike is likely and that inflation remains stubborn) could strengthen the dollar and Treasury yields, putting pressure on risk assets. BTC could retest support at $78,000–$79,000, while for ETH, watch whether key support near $2,280 holds; if it breaks, the risk of a further drop toward $2,200 increases.
• Additional context: Tech giants’ earnings, PCE data, and sentiment related to the midterm elections follow soon after the meeting, and the combination of macro factors could amplify volatility. The high-yield environment (with 10-year Treasury yields still near 5%) continues to weigh on non-yielding assets such as BTC and ETH, though in the short term, sentiment and position adjustments are likely to matter more.