After investing for so many years, there are two things that increasingly seem like scams to me—traps of the human mind.
One is holding leveraged ETFs long term, like TQQQ. Products like 7709 are something I was among the first to criticize, and I’ve kept criticizing them ever since.
The idea of triple returns sounds great, but the core problem is volatility decay: the back-and-forth swings eat away at your principal, and then there’s the cost of borrowing. In the long run, I don’t think the numbers make sense.
The other is buying actively managed funds.
I’m increasingly convinced that technical analysis, macroeconomic forecasts, sector rotation—all kinds of subjective judgment—amount to little more than random guesses in the end. People can make it all sound very convincing, but once they actually put money on the line, they may not do much better than a coin toss. Meanwhile, the management fees keep rolling in year after year.
I’d rather not try to time the market. Just buy when you have money and hold for the long term. Invest regularly in the S&P 500, or buy BTC or ETH if you believe in them. Keep it simple—there’s no need to pay someone to guess which way prices will go every day.
One is holding leveraged ETFs long term, like TQQQ. Products like 7709 are something I was among the first to criticize, and I’ve kept criticizing them ever since.
The idea of triple returns sounds great, but the core problem is volatility decay: the back-and-forth swings eat away at your principal, and then there’s the cost of borrowing. In the long run, I don’t think the numbers make sense.
The other is buying actively managed funds.
I’m increasingly convinced that technical analysis, macroeconomic forecasts, sector rotation—all kinds of subjective judgment—amount to little more than random guesses in the end. People can make it all sound very convincing, but once they actually put money on the line, they may not do much better than a coin toss. Meanwhile, the management fees keep rolling in year after year.
I’d rather not try to time the market. Just buy when you have money and hold for the long term. Invest regularly in the S&P 500, or buy BTC or ETH if you believe in them. Keep it simple—there’s no need to pay someone to guess which way prices will go every day.