Wall Street Tuesday: a quiet drift higher into the Fed
Dow +0.03% to 52,378, S&P +0.6% to 7,723, Nasdaq +1.2% to 26,478. AI and chips did most of the lifting. VIX cooled to around 17.5. Breadth was decent but nothing explosive. Nobody wanted to make big bets before the meeting.
š¦ FOMC today (statement at 2pm ET, about 1am Thursday VN time)
Base case is a hold at 3.75ā4.00%, with only ~9% odds of a hike. No SEP or dot plot this meeting. The market still prices a December hike at 80%+, so what matters is the statement wording and Warshās presser: does the āfurther tighteningā path soften or not? With oil high and inflation sticky, the bias stays hawkish.
ā” Oil: Brent settled around $113.88 (ā1.7%), still close to cycle highs. WTI sits at ~$100ā101. The Hormuz supply risk isnāt resolved.
š 10Y yield ~4.99ā5.00%, DXY firm at ~102.4.
š Asia open
š„ Gold ~$4,055ā4,070 (Tuesday close $4,060, +1.1%)
š„ Silver ~$54.00ā54.50
āæ Bitcoin ~$80,600ā81,100
Ī ETH ~$2,350ā2,370
Levels Iām watching :
š„ XAU: Support 4,020 / 4,000 / 3,990. Resistance 4,080 / 4,100 / 4,140. The bounce looks like pre-event positioning, and 4,000 is the line into the print.
š„ XAG: Support 53.50 / 53.00. Resistance 55.00 / 56.00. Lagging gold for now, so it needs to hold 54.
āæ BTC: Support 80,000 / 79,400 / 79,000. Resistance 81,200 / 82,000 / 84,000. Range-bound ahead of the decision. If 80k goes, the recent bounce likely fades.
ā ļø Itās an event day. Cash is a position until the statement and presser are out. A hold is already priced in, so the real reaction will come down to tone and oil.
TRADE $BTC | $XAG | $XAU HEREš
Dow +0.03% to 52,378, S&P +0.6% to 7,723, Nasdaq +1.2% to 26,478. AI and chips did most of the lifting. VIX cooled to around 17.5. Breadth was decent but nothing explosive. Nobody wanted to make big bets before the meeting.
š¦ FOMC today (statement at 2pm ET, about 1am Thursday VN time)
Base case is a hold at 3.75ā4.00%, with only ~9% odds of a hike. No SEP or dot plot this meeting. The market still prices a December hike at 80%+, so what matters is the statement wording and Warshās presser: does the āfurther tighteningā path soften or not? With oil high and inflation sticky, the bias stays hawkish.
ā” Oil: Brent settled around $113.88 (ā1.7%), still close to cycle highs. WTI sits at ~$100ā101. The Hormuz supply risk isnāt resolved.
š 10Y yield ~4.99ā5.00%, DXY firm at ~102.4.
š Asia open
š„ Gold ~$4,055ā4,070 (Tuesday close $4,060, +1.1%)
š„ Silver ~$54.00ā54.50
āæ Bitcoin ~$80,600ā81,100
Ī ETH ~$2,350ā2,370
Levels Iām watching :
š„ XAU: Support 4,020 / 4,000 / 3,990. Resistance 4,080 / 4,100 / 4,140. The bounce looks like pre-event positioning, and 4,000 is the line into the print.
š„ XAG: Support 53.50 / 53.00. Resistance 55.00 / 56.00. Lagging gold for now, so it needs to hold 54.
āæ BTC: Support 80,000 / 79,400 / 79,000. Resistance 81,200 / 82,000 / 84,000. Range-bound ahead of the decision. If 80k goes, the recent bounce likely fades.
ā ļø Itās an event day. Cash is a position until the statement and presser are out. A hold is already priced in, so the real reaction will come down to tone and oil.
TRADE $BTC | $XAG | $XAU HEREš
