No one borrowed money to drive this rebound, and the options market isn’t panicking either (3/5)
At Binance’s perpetual futures settlement at 8 a.m. today, the funding rate was almost half what it was yesterday, yet the price went up.
That suggests this rally isn’t being driven by bulls borrowing money and forcing prices higher.
Open interest tells the same story. Overnight futures open interest briefly fell by more than 3,000 coins as a round of leveraged positions got flushed out. It’s now gradually recovering and is back around where it was a week ago.
Retail traders are still crowded on the long side, with nearly 70% of accounts on Binance holding long positions. But the long-short ratio among large traders has been falling over the past two days. Big money is pulling back.
The options market is even quieter. Implied volatility is low, and no one is rushing to buy downside protection. Big players aren’t betting on a major move around the decision.
The Fear and Greed Index is sitting in the middle too. It’s been hovering around neutral for the past few days, with no one especially excited.
At 4 p.m. Friday, options worth more than $10 billion will expire. Based on open interest, the max pain point is around $78,000. I’d treat that figure only as a reference; it won’t pull the price there by itself.
I see this part as mildly positive. Leverage has been flushed out once, and the market is lighter. If prices do fall, there are fewer positions than a few days ago that could trigger a cascade of liquidations.
The problem is that big players are pulling back, and no one in the options market is betting on a big move. There still isn’t enough momentum to push the price above $82,000.
Funding rates, open interest, and options—all three look subdued.
$BTC
This is just my personal view and does not constitute investment advice.
At Binance’s perpetual futures settlement at 8 a.m. today, the funding rate was almost half what it was yesterday, yet the price went up.
That suggests this rally isn’t being driven by bulls borrowing money and forcing prices higher.
Open interest tells the same story. Overnight futures open interest briefly fell by more than 3,000 coins as a round of leveraged positions got flushed out. It’s now gradually recovering and is back around where it was a week ago.
Retail traders are still crowded on the long side, with nearly 70% of accounts on Binance holding long positions. But the long-short ratio among large traders has been falling over the past two days. Big money is pulling back.
The options market is even quieter. Implied volatility is low, and no one is rushing to buy downside protection. Big players aren’t betting on a major move around the decision.
The Fear and Greed Index is sitting in the middle too. It’s been hovering around neutral for the past few days, with no one especially excited.
At 4 p.m. Friday, options worth more than $10 billion will expire. Based on open interest, the max pain point is around $78,000. I’d treat that figure only as a reference; it won’t pull the price there by itself.
I see this part as mildly positive. Leverage has been flushed out once, and the market is lighter. If prices do fall, there are fewer positions than a few days ago that could trigger a cascade of liquidations.
The problem is that big players are pulling back, and no one in the options market is betting on a big move. There still isn’t enough momentum to push the price above $82,000.
Funding rates, open interest, and options—all three look subdued.
$BTC
This is just my personal view and does not constitute investment advice.
