The October 28 FOMC meeting could influence Bitcoin’s trend in November, as markets watch for interest-rate signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the possibility of BTC testing the $75,000 level.
Bitcoin has fallen below $80,000, while BTC’s share of the crypto market capitalization has also dropped below 60%. Spot demand and inflation data are being monitored alongside the Fed’s decision.
KEY CONTENT
The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but signals about further hikes remain something to watch.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw approximately $774 million in outflows over the two days of October 22–23.
The share of short-term Bitcoin holders’ supply in profit fell to around 70%.
How could the Fed and inflation affect Bitcoin?
Bitcoin could face further downward pressure if the Fed signals that it will keep interest rates higher for longer. The market is also watching for the possibility that the Fed may mention another rate hike.
Vugar Usi, CEO of MEXC, said the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its October meeting as it balances rising inflation against a weakening labor market.
“With September job growth at just 29,000, policymakers may want to wait before taking their next step.”
– Vugar Usi, CEO of MEXC
U.S. inflation rose to 3.7% in September, up 0.3 percentage points and marking the largest increase since May 2026. Higher energy prices could make it harder for the Fed to cut interest rates.
Source: TradingEconomics
Bitcoin price levels and fund flows
The $80,000 level is being watched after Bitcoin fell below it, while a further decline to $75,000 is also being considered. According to Vugar Usi, the potential for a recovery depends on spot buying demand.
Metric or level Data Context Bitcoin price Below $80,000 A level being monitored to assess the potential for a recovery. Potential price level to test $75,000 A scenario under consideration if downward pressure continues. Bitcoin price after the September 16 Fed meeting Rose from $75,000 to $81,000 A previous move cited by Vugar Usi. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs Approximately $774 million in outflows Over the two days of October 22–23. Bitcoin market cap share Below 60% BTC.D fell below this threshold. Short-term Bitcoin holders’ supply in profit Around 70% Fell from nearly the entire supply at the end of September.
Vugar Usi believes Bitcoin could hold the $80,000 level if buying pressure absorbs selling pressure. However, outflows from ETFs over October 22–23 mean that a recovery in spot demand remains something to watch.
On-chain data and selling pressure
The share of short-term Bitcoin holders’ supply in profit has fallen from nearly all of the supply to around 70%, which could ease profit-taking pressure. This decline does not confirm that Bitcoin has bottomed.
Source: Glassnode
The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index also fell to its lowest level since June 2026. The last time the index was in this range, Bitcoin bottomed the next day and then rose 50%; that movement is no guarantee of a repeat.
Some on-chain data is beginning to show signs of weakening selling pressure, while views on a potential recovery after the midterm elections have also emerged. Whether Bitcoin can reclaim and hold the $80,000 level remains something to watch.
Summary
Bitcoin faces the risk of falling toward $75,000 if signals from the Fed put further pressure on the market. Conversely, a recovery in spot demand and the ability to hold the $80,000 level could support the price, although on-chain signals have yet to confirm a new bottom.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/giai-ma-trien-vong-trung-han-cua-bitcoin-truoc-rui-ro-fed-cung-ran/
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