Revenue up 25%, but profit expectations down 23%—is Lilly’s earnings report tomorrow good or bad?
Lilly is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2026 results before the U.S. market opens on October 29. The earnings call is at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time, or 10:00 p.m. Beijing Time on October 29.
First, a quick look at market expectations: estimates vary considerably, so don’t focus on just one figure:
1. Analysts’ EPS estimates range from $5.08 to $5.63, while revenue estimates range from $22.11 billion to $22.56 billion;
2. Zacks estimates EPS of $5.38, down about 23.4% year over year, and revenue of $22.11 billion, up about 25.6%;
3. TipRanks estimates EPS of $5.08, compared with $6.26 in the same quarter last year;
4. Full-year EPS guidance remains in the range of roughly $35.50 to $36.50.
The expected decline in profit is mainly due to a one-time charge for acquisition-related R&D expenses in the third quarter—not weak sales. The three things that really matter are whether sales momentum continues for the weight-loss drugs Zepbound and Mounjaro, whether Lilly can clearly explain progress on oral GLP-1 drugs, and whether it raises its full-year guidance. Goldman Sachs just raised its price target from $1,371 to $1,413 and maintained a Buy rating. Bank of America also has a Buy rating, with a $1,397 price target. The consensus among 23 analysts is Strong Buy, with an average price target of about $1,371.
How to read the report: the focus isn’t the headline profit figure, but whether revenue and guidance can outweigh the noise from one-time expenses. If revenue beats expectations and guidance is raised, the weight-loss drug story can keep going. If revenue meets expectations but the market fixates on the profit decline and misreads the results, watch how management breaks down the expenses on the call—don’t let the initial reaction sway you. If revenue misses expectations and guidance isn’t raised, some of the high expectations may get priced in; don’t chase the first move at the open.
$LLY
Data as of: 2026-10-28 02:50 UTC
For informational purposes only; not investment advice.
Lilly is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2026 results before the U.S. market opens on October 29. The earnings call is at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time, or 10:00 p.m. Beijing Time on October 29.
First, a quick look at market expectations: estimates vary considerably, so don’t focus on just one figure:
1. Analysts’ EPS estimates range from $5.08 to $5.63, while revenue estimates range from $22.11 billion to $22.56 billion;
2. Zacks estimates EPS of $5.38, down about 23.4% year over year, and revenue of $22.11 billion, up about 25.6%;
3. TipRanks estimates EPS of $5.08, compared with $6.26 in the same quarter last year;
4. Full-year EPS guidance remains in the range of roughly $35.50 to $36.50.
The expected decline in profit is mainly due to a one-time charge for acquisition-related R&D expenses in the third quarter—not weak sales. The three things that really matter are whether sales momentum continues for the weight-loss drugs Zepbound and Mounjaro, whether Lilly can clearly explain progress on oral GLP-1 drugs, and whether it raises its full-year guidance. Goldman Sachs just raised its price target from $1,371 to $1,413 and maintained a Buy rating. Bank of America also has a Buy rating, with a $1,397 price target. The consensus among 23 analysts is Strong Buy, with an average price target of about $1,371.
How to read the report: the focus isn’t the headline profit figure, but whether revenue and guidance can outweigh the noise from one-time expenses. If revenue beats expectations and guidance is raised, the weight-loss drug story can keep going. If revenue meets expectations but the market fixates on the profit decline and misreads the results, watch how management breaks down the expenses on the call—don’t let the initial reaction sway you. If revenue misses expectations and guidance isn’t raised, some of the high expectations may get priced in; don’t chase the first move at the open.
$LLY
Data as of: 2026-10-28 02:50 UTC
For informational purposes only; not investment advice.
