This morning, $BTC was around $80.7K, up about 0.8% over 24 hours. It climbed back above $80K, but hasn’t gone far. Tonight’s test is the Fed’s rate decision: futures put the odds of no change at 91%. The wildcard is whether Warsh will push up the probability of a December hike in his post-meeting remarks.
The flow picture has diverged: on October 27, BTC spot ETFs saw net inflows of about $109 million, with IBIT alone accounting for 101.6% of the total. Meanwhile, ETH ETFs saw net outflows of about $89 million. This isn’t a broad-based recovery—it’s a single point of support.
At the other end of the gainers list, $BTW was around $1.74, up 46% over 24 hours, with no corresponding new announcement. It had just set a new high of $2.75 on October 14, and a large unlock is due on November 2. When a token surges without an announcement, check leverage and token distribution first.
My take: above $80K is a “waiting for the decision” level, not a “good news is already priced in” level. First watch the December wording, then see whether inflows spread beyond a single fund.
Risk warning: This is not investment advice. Volatility often picks up during the post-meeting remarks on FOMC days.
The real question: if tonight’s tone is hawkish, will BTC’s price come under pressure first, or will outflows from ETH ETFs accelerate first?
No calls—just the numbers.
$BTC $BTW
#比特币 #美联储 #ETF
The flow picture has diverged: on October 27, BTC spot ETFs saw net inflows of about $109 million, with IBIT alone accounting for 101.6% of the total. Meanwhile, ETH ETFs saw net outflows of about $89 million. This isn’t a broad-based recovery—it’s a single point of support.
At the other end of the gainers list, $BTW was around $1.74, up 46% over 24 hours, with no corresponding new announcement. It had just set a new high of $2.75 on October 14, and a large unlock is due on November 2. When a token surges without an announcement, check leverage and token distribution first.
My take: above $80K is a “waiting for the decision” level, not a “good news is already priced in” level. First watch the December wording, then see whether inflows spread beyond a single fund.
Risk warning: This is not investment advice. Volatility often picks up during the post-meeting remarks on FOMC days.
The real question: if tonight’s tone is hawkish, will BTC’s price come under pressure first, or will outflows from ETH ETFs accelerate first?
No calls—just the numbers.
$BTC $BTW
#比特币 #美联储 #ETF