The US has already told Gulf countries through diplomatic and military channels that it may launch a brief but intense military operation against Iran after the midterm elections. The US military is moving Patriot air defense systems, while bombers and fighter jets are being readied. Another carrier strike group is also set to join the Middle East fleet next month.
Trump is inclined to strike after the election, possibly targeting Iran’s infrastructure and nuclear facilities.
Oil prices reacted immediately: US crude at $100.28 and Brent at $110.37.
BTC is hovering around $80,000, like a rubber band stretched to its limit.
Glassnode data: The weighted average cost basis of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs is about $81,500. The true market average is about $77,500 to $78,000.
80,000 sits right in the middle.
Above it, around 81,500, are ETF holders who entered at highs from late 2025 to early 2026. They’ve been sitting on losses for months, and they’ll sell as soon as they break even. Every rebound into that zone gets pushed back down.
Below it, 77,500 to 78,000 is the first layer of true support. Further down, short-term holders’ cost basis is at 74,600.
80,000 is neither a bottom nor a top. It’s a meat grinder where bulls and bears hand off control.
About $149 million in positions were liquidated across the market in the past 24 hours: $48.61 million in longs and $99.92 million in shorts—shorts took the bigger hit. This shows that leveraged longs are indeed being flushed out, but shorts are also getting squeezed. Both sides are bleeding.
If BTC falls below $76,566, cumulative long liquidation exposure on major CEXs will reach $1.572 billion.
Meanwhile, spot ETFs saw net outflows of more than $300 million in October, but net inflows for the year remain at $1.75 billion, with historical cumulative net inflows of $57.2 billion. Institutions are slowing down, but they haven’t reversed course.
Leverage is being flushed out, while institutions are providing support. Both sides are waiting for the other to blink first.
Three scenarios—see which one fits.
Scenario 1: Hold 80,000 and reclaim 82,000.
A short-term bottom is confirmed. The ETF cost-basis zone at 81,500 is absorbed, and the historical “down first, then up” script still has a chance to play out. The caveat: oil prices must not surge any further.
Scenario 2: The daily close is below 80,000, but the weekly close reclaims it.
A false breakdown. But you need a confirming signal: oil prices must fall at the same time. If Brent is still above 110, then a weekly reclaim is a false signal too.
Scenario 3: The weekly chart loses 80,000, and oil prices keep rising.
The institutional cost basis zone is breached, and the true market average of 77,500–78,000 is tested. The next stop is the short-term holder cost basis at 74,600. Once we get there, the “down first, then up” narrative is officially invalidated. 75,000 is in sight.
Brent crude is now at 110.37. The WSJ says action may be taken after the election. The trigger for Scenario 3 isn’t in the candlesticks—it’s in the Persian Gulf.
80,000 isn’t there to be “defended”—it’s there to be “endured.”
The ETF crowd is waiting at 81,500 to sell at breakeven. The group at 78,000 is waiting to buy. This $3,000 gap is where bulls and bears tear each other apart. If you open a leveraged position here, you’re not making a call on direction—you’re paying fees to the liquidation engine.
First, stay away from leveraged contracts. There are $1.572 billion in long positions lined up for liquidation below 76,566. You don’t know if the price will go there, but you know how many people will get wiped out if it does. Don’t become one of those numbers.
Second, if you trust historical patterns, buy spot in stages during a sharp drop, then gradually take profits on the rebound. Below 80,000, around 77,500, is the first threshold for the true market average. But this only works if your position is small enough to survive a drop to 74,600.
Third, if you don’t trust them, wait. Wait for the Strait of Hormuz situation to become clearer, for the FOMC decision to come through, and for oil prices to show a direction. You don’t know where the “first drop” will bottom out, but you can make sure you’re not forced out before it does.