Honestly, I came across a set of figures last night and spent a while looking at them: over the past 30 days, retail investors nearly doubled their BTC deposits to Binance, reaching $10.8 billion, while deposits from large investors fell to $3.8 billion (according to data compiled by CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost).
Put simply, when the rebound came, small investors rushed to exit, while big players barely moved.
My take is that this isn’t necessarily bad news. What usually sends the market crashing through support isn’t the small amount of selling from retail investors.
First, let’s look at $BTC. It’s around $80,711 now, up 0.7% over 24 hours but still down 2.7% over 7 days. Over the past 30 days, daily closes have ranged from a low of $80,029 to a high of $86,490—basically grinding along near the bottom of the range.
The levels I’m watching are simple: 79,000–80,000 has been repeatedly tested and bought back up over the past few days. If it holds, we’re still range-bound; above that, first watch 81,000, then the area around 84,000 from a week ago.
The fund flows are interesting. U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw $110 million in net inflows on Monday, ending the $770 million in outflows over the previous two days. But nearly all of that $110 million came from BlackRock alone; the other 11 funds saw zero inflows. October as a whole still ended with net outflows of about $200 million.
One more small detail: Strive bought 6,182 coins between October 17 and 23 at an average price of around 82,732. That means this institutional position is currently underwater. Institutions can get caught in a bad trade too—a good reminder to stay grounded 😅
$ETH I’m not quite as optimistic. At $2,344, ETH is barely above its 30-day daily low of $2,321. ETH ETFs saw another roughly $88.58 million in outflows on Monday, bringing the seven-day total to about $190 million. Someone is buying BTC, but nobody’s buying ETH. I think that gap will persist in the short term, and $2,300 is my line in the sand.
Among altcoins, $ZEC is the biggest story today.
Today marks the 10th anniversary of Zcash’s launch. It’s trading at $1,301, up 5.4% in 24 hours. The narrative is the NU7 upgrade expected around November 5, which will cut block times from 75 seconds to 25 seconds.
But let me pour a little cold water on that: one analysis shows its futures trading volume is about 17 times its spot volume, and a big part of the rally came from short liquidations. Leveraged rallies can fade fast, too. I’ll be watching to see whether the intraday low of 1,211 holds.
A few others worth mentioning:
- BCH is up 5.1%, NEAR 4.1%, and HYPE 3.6%—among today’s stronger performers.
- SUI and HBAR are down around 9.5% over seven days, while AVAX and ADA are down more than 8%. Weak coins are still being drained of liquidity.
As for sentiment, the Fear and Greed Index is at 51, a slight recovery from yesterday’s 48. Neutral. Simply put, the market is waiting.
Everyone knows what it’s waiting for: the rate decision at 2 a.m. Thursday Beijing time. I’m not planning to take a big directional bet before then. The market will probably keep grinding sideways during the day, with the real volatility coming early Thursday morning.
One last question: do you think the coins retail traders are handing over around $80,000 will end up in the hands of big players, or will the sell-off continue? Let me know which side you’re on in the comments 👀
Just my personal opinion, not investment advice. Markets are risky, so manage your own positions.