On rate-decision day, don’t focus only on the “break below and recovery”—holding above $80,000 is both a base-building process and a window in which regulatory tailwinds are accumulating.
$BTC Around $80,700 this morning, after briefly dipping below $80,000 overnight before recovering; trading and derivatives volumes have contracted, suggesting the market is waiting for today’s Fed decision in the U.S. (roughly 90% expect no change; the key question is whether the chair will hint at another rate hike in December). U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $110 million in net inflows on Monday, but almost all of it went into IBIT, while October’s cumulative flows remain net negative at around $—inflows have returned, but are highly concentrated.
Structural highlights lean bullish: Ripple received OCC approval for a national trust bank, giving RLUSD access to federal channels; Binance submitted its license application ahead of Brazil’s 10/30 deadline; and USDC’s share of euro-denominated trading in Europe has surpassed USDT’s. On the leverage front, the SEC approved listing rules for 3x BTC/ETH-related ETFs (they cannot yet be traded because their S-1 filings are not effective). On the other hand, Strategy paused its buying and Ark trimmed its own spot BTC ETF holdings, showing that institutional activity remains uneven.
Do you think that after tonight's rate decision, $BTC will test resistance at 81,000 first, or keep trading around 80,000 while slowly forming a bottom?