š The Fed just weighed in, and tomorrow night GDP + PCE deliver another blow. Will BTC pump then dump, or pick a direction right away?
At 20:30 Beijing time on October 29, the U.S. will release its initial Q3 GDP estimate and September PCE data at the same timeāone day after the Fedās October meeting decision (02:00 Beijing time on the 29th). The Fed will have to make its announcement without seeing either of these two reports.
š¢ Market expectations (estimates vary slightly by institution)
ā¢ Q3 annualized GDP: consensus around 3.2%, versus 2.2% previously (TD forecasts 2.5%; AP survey around 1.7%āa wide spread)
ā¢ September PCE year over year: expected at 3.6%ā3.7%, versus 3.4% previously; around 0.5% month over month, driven mainly by higher oil prices
ā¢ Core PCE: expected at 3.1% year over year and 0.3% month over month, versus 3.0% / 0.2% previously
š§ Three scenarios
ā¢ Strong growth + hot inflation: Rate-hike expectations continue to rise. The probability of a December hike is already above 75%, putting pressure on risk assets.
ā¢ Weak growth + hot inflation: A stagflation signal that leaves the Fed in a bind; volatility would be highest.
ā¢ Inflation below expectations: Could bring short-term relief and give BTC room to rebound.
š Market impact
BTC is currently around $80,800, up about 0.8% over 24 hours. It has traded between $79,200 and $84,100 over the past two weeks, and has clearly lacked direction after three straight weeks of declines. Key levels: support at $79,200ā79,500 (recent lows), resistance at $81,300 / $82,100. Volatility often picks up in the hour before and after the data release, so be careful with leverage.
Do you think this data will make BTC pump then dump, or pick a direction right away? Share your thoughts in the comments š
š Trade BTC: https://www.binance.com/zh-CN/trade/BTC_USDT
#ē¾å½äøåØå°å ¬åøQ3GDPå9ęPCE #PCE #ē¾čåØ #BTC
ā ļø This is not investment advice. Please be aware of the risks.
At 20:30 Beijing time on October 29, the U.S. will release its initial Q3 GDP estimate and September PCE data at the same timeāone day after the Fedās October meeting decision (02:00 Beijing time on the 29th). The Fed will have to make its announcement without seeing either of these two reports.
š¢ Market expectations (estimates vary slightly by institution)
ā¢ Q3 annualized GDP: consensus around 3.2%, versus 2.2% previously (TD forecasts 2.5%; AP survey around 1.7%āa wide spread)
ā¢ September PCE year over year: expected at 3.6%ā3.7%, versus 3.4% previously; around 0.5% month over month, driven mainly by higher oil prices
ā¢ Core PCE: expected at 3.1% year over year and 0.3% month over month, versus 3.0% / 0.2% previously
š§ Three scenarios
ā¢ Strong growth + hot inflation: Rate-hike expectations continue to rise. The probability of a December hike is already above 75%, putting pressure on risk assets.
ā¢ Weak growth + hot inflation: A stagflation signal that leaves the Fed in a bind; volatility would be highest.
ā¢ Inflation below expectations: Could bring short-term relief and give BTC room to rebound.
š Market impact
BTC is currently around $80,800, up about 0.8% over 24 hours. It has traded between $79,200 and $84,100 over the past two weeks, and has clearly lacked direction after three straight weeks of declines. Key levels: support at $79,200ā79,500 (recent lows), resistance at $81,300 / $82,100. Volatility often picks up in the hour before and after the data release, so be careful with leverage.
Do you think this data will make BTC pump then dump, or pick a direction right away? Share your thoughts in the comments š
š Trade BTC: https://www.binance.com/zh-CN/trade/BTC_USDT
#ē¾å½äøåØå°å ¬åøQ3GDPå9ęPCE #PCE #ē¾čåØ #BTC
ā ļø This is not investment advice. Please be aware of the risks.
