Bitcoin (BTC) is on track for a second consecutive October decline, down 4.10% since the start of the month. However, four signals related to price, positioning, on-chain data, and the macroeconomic backdrop still point to an upward bias.
Galaxy and Santiment have identified signs of a potential bottom, while Glassnode data point to cooling among recent buyers. Bitcoin’s history in November, however, suggests caution.
Bitcoin holds support above its 50-week moving average
The price has retreated since BeInCrypto highlighted four risks facing Bitcoin in early October. However, its long-term chart structure remains intact.
Galaxy Head of Research Alex Thorn views the 200-week average as Bitcoin’s bear-market floor and the 50-week average as its ceiling. The asset tested the floor in June and reclaimed the ceiling in September, after spending 44 weeks below that level.
Trading at US$79,935, BTC is about 5% above the 50-week average, currently at US$75,812.
Galaxy analyzed four previous recoveries after periods of at least 20 weeks below the 50-week average. In every case, Bitcoin never closed more than 8.4% below the reclaimed level over the following year.
“… our conclusion is simple: we believe now is an attractive time to buy and hold bitcoin,” the publication says.
Speculative capital has already left the market
Galaxy data also show who sold during the downturn. Asset managers’ net long positions in Bitcoin futures on the CME fell 57% in the week following the coin’s all-time high.
Nine asset managers, including Millennium Management and Goldman Sachs, reduced their holdings in spot Bitcoin ETFs by a total equivalent to 68,000 BTC between September 2025 and June 2026.
Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have added 87,000 BTC since the June low.
Recent buyers pull back and retail investors leave
While large funds reduced their positions, on-chain data are tracking smaller investors. According to Glassnode, about 70% of short-term investors’ supply is in profit, down from nearly all of it at the end of September.
“… for those expecting the uptrend to continue, this is a considerably better entry point than a month ago,” the company said on X.
Bitcoin has also lost about 30,000 non-empty wallets since October 16, according to Santiment. The company says this move could signal the formation of a bottom.
“… retail investor capitulation has historically been more favorable for prices than a sudden influx of new buyers chasing gains,” it added.
U.S. debt strengthens the long-term case
The fourth signal comes from outside the crypto market. U.S. federal debt reached US$40.44 trillion on October 20, while fiscal year 2026 ended with a deficit of US$1.99 trillion.
Galaxy notes that rolling over such a large debt at interest rates near 5% could increase pressure on policymakers to tolerate inflation, which tends to benefit limited-supply assets such as Bitcoin.
However, this effect unfolds over years, offering little indication of short-term price movements.
November’s positive historical performance comes with caveats
Bitcoin’s own track record offers a counterpoint. November closed higher in 63% of years since 2010, with a median gain of 10.26%, according to Coinglass data.
However, the penultimate month of the year rose in only 2 of the 5 periods that followed a negative October. Last year, October’s 3.95% decline preceded a 17.49% drop in November.
Santiment says a sustained break below US$79,000 would delay the bottom signal. A move back toward US$82,500 would strengthen this indicator.
October’s close, now just 4 days away, will show which side of this range Bitcoin remains on.
The article Bitcoin Heads for a Negative October with 4 Bullish Signals Still in Place first appeared on BeInCrypto Brasil.