#fomc会议
【Federal Reserve · FOMC Preview】
The Fed will announce its decision on October 28 (2 a.m. Beijing time on the 29th), with a 90% probability of holding rates at 3.75%–4.00%. There will be no dot plot or economic projections.
The dissenting votes are what matter. The September rate hike passed unanimously, 12–0. If the Fed now pauses, that necessarily means at least one person who voted in favor then disagrees now. Some institutions expect one to three dissenting votes in favor of a hike.
The vote count is the key. CME pricing puts the odds of a December hike at 70%–80%. Another detail to watch is how the statement characterizes energy prices: September CPI was up 3.7% year over year, while core CPI was just 2.6%—nearly all of the 1.1-point gap came from gasoline. Attributing the gap to energy would leave the door open for December; simply saying inflation remains elevated would effectively lock in a December hike. Waller is unlikely to offer many clues: he advocates scrapping forward guidance, but the committee has not followed suit. Since September, 16 officials have taken part in 59 public events.
The next few days are back-to-back. The decision comes early on the 29th, followed that evening by third-quarter GDP and September PCE. The midterm elections are on November 3, and the next meeting is on December 9. Core PCE was already at 3.0% in August. If September’s figure is still above 3%, a December hike will be unavoidable; if it falls below 2.8%, the pause could last into next year.
【Federal Reserve · FOMC Preview】
The Fed will announce its decision on October 28 (2 a.m. Beijing time on the 29th), with a 90% probability of holding rates at 3.75%–4.00%. There will be no dot plot or economic projections.
The dissenting votes are what matter. The September rate hike passed unanimously, 12–0. If the Fed now pauses, that necessarily means at least one person who voted in favor then disagrees now. Some institutions expect one to three dissenting votes in favor of a hike.
The vote count is the key. CME pricing puts the odds of a December hike at 70%–80%. Another detail to watch is how the statement characterizes energy prices: September CPI was up 3.7% year over year, while core CPI was just 2.6%—nearly all of the 1.1-point gap came from gasoline. Attributing the gap to energy would leave the door open for December; simply saying inflation remains elevated would effectively lock in a December hike. Waller is unlikely to offer many clues: he advocates scrapping forward guidance, but the committee has not followed suit. Since September, 16 officials have taken part in 59 public events.
The next few days are back-to-back. The decision comes early on the 29th, followed that evening by third-quarter GDP and September PCE. The midterm elections are on November 3, and the next meeting is on December 9. Core PCE was already at 3.0% in August. If September’s figure is still above 3%, a December hike will be unavoidable; if it falls below 2.8%, the pause could last into next year.