#股票财报季 #U.S. Earnings
Google reports earnings tomorrow night (around 4 a.m. Thursday Beijing time). What I’m most interested in isn’t how much it earned—it’s capex.
Last quarter, cloud revenue grew 82%, and EPS came in at 9.11 versus 2.88—a clear blowout. Yet the stock fell 7.1% the next day. By contrast, it rose 10% this April, when options were pricing in a move of only about 5.5%. Both times, the move exceeded what options had priced in.
This time, options are pricing in a ±6.4% move. The market expects revenue of around 127.9 billion and EPS of about 3.02. Capex guidance has already been raised to 195–205 billion; if it goes up again, even a beat might not be enough.
$GOOGL Perpetuals are around 319 now. 317 is this week’s low; if it breaks below that, the price could test lower. On the upside, 325 is the first level to watch for a reclaim.
I’m not keen on guessing the direction before earnings. Are you betting it goes up or down?
Just my personal observations, not investment advice.
Google reports earnings tomorrow night (around 4 a.m. Thursday Beijing time). What I’m most interested in isn’t how much it earned—it’s capex.
Last quarter, cloud revenue grew 82%, and EPS came in at 9.11 versus 2.88—a clear blowout. Yet the stock fell 7.1% the next day. By contrast, it rose 10% this April, when options were pricing in a move of only about 5.5%. Both times, the move exceeded what options had priced in.
This time, options are pricing in a ±6.4% move. The market expects revenue of around 127.9 billion and EPS of about 3.02. Capex guidance has already been raised to 195–205 billion; if it goes up again, even a beat might not be enough.
$GOOGL Perpetuals are around 319 now. 317 is this week’s low; if it breaks below that, the price could test lower. On the upside, 325 is the first level to watch for a reclaim.
I’m not keen on guessing the direction before earnings. Are you betting it goes up or down?
Just my personal observations, not investment advice.
