In this final post, I’m leaning bullish, but I’ll only make a move near the edges of the range. I’m staying out of the middle.
I’ve already covered the reasons. The number of coins in the shielded pool is growing, the top traders’ long/short ratio is still above 1.4, and there’s an upgrade to look forward to on November 5.
The problem is that price isn’t cooperating. It’s fallen from 1699 to 1238 in a month, and the 50-day moving average is still overhead at 1303. Anyone stuck above could use a bounce to get out at any time.
Here’s my plan: if price returns to around 1180 and holds, I’ll consider cautiously testing a small long position. It’s been caught there several times over the past three days.
If the daily candle closes below 1180, that thesis is invalidated. Then I’ll look at 1118, where Saturday’s wick reached.
To the upside, I won’t look toward the 50-day moving average at 1303 until the daily candle closes above 1268. Only after price holds above 1303 will 1368 be worth discussing.
I won’t chase or short anywhere between 1180 and 1268. Price can cross that whole range in a day, and getting in there means getting hit from both sides.
Around November 5, whether or not price has reached its target, I’ll lower my expectations a bit. The rollout of an upgrade is often a day when the news gets priced in and traders take profits.
Are you planning to wait for 1180 or 1268?
$ZEC #Zcash
This is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.
I’ve already covered the reasons. The number of coins in the shielded pool is growing, the top traders’ long/short ratio is still above 1.4, and there’s an upgrade to look forward to on November 5.
The problem is that price isn’t cooperating. It’s fallen from 1699 to 1238 in a month, and the 50-day moving average is still overhead at 1303. Anyone stuck above could use a bounce to get out at any time.
Here’s my plan: if price returns to around 1180 and holds, I’ll consider cautiously testing a small long position. It’s been caught there several times over the past three days.
If the daily candle closes below 1180, that thesis is invalidated. Then I’ll look at 1118, where Saturday’s wick reached.
To the upside, I won’t look toward the 50-day moving average at 1303 until the daily candle closes above 1268. Only after price holds above 1303 will 1368 be worth discussing.
I won’t chase or short anywhere between 1180 and 1268. Price can cross that whole range in a day, and getting in there means getting hit from both sides.
Around November 5, whether or not price has reached its target, I’ll lower my expectations a bit. The rollout of an upgrade is often a day when the news gets priced in and traders take profits.
Are you planning to wait for 1180 or 1268?
$ZEC #Zcash
This is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.
